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Thread: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

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    UL Baseball Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    The Cajuns are sitting at an Adjusted RPI of .5530, good for a rank of #52 (up from .5475 and a rank of #58 entering last weekend).

    UL RPI Breakdown:
    WP: .5778
    OWP: .5451
    OOWP: .5154
    Base RPI: .5458 (Rank #59)
    RPI Bonuses: .0072 (USM -> .0024, Rice -> .0024, LSU -> .0024)
    Adjusted RPI: .5530 (Rank #52)
    Road RPI: .5405 (Rank #62)
    SOS: .5352 (Rank #61)
    Non-Conference RPI: .5380 (Rank #78)
    vs. Top 25 Base RPI: 3-1 (USM, Rice, LSU)
    vs. Top 50 Base RPI: 7-6 (FIU, Cal, FAU, SLU)
    vs. Top 75 Base RPI: 7-6
    vs. Top 100 Base RPI: 8-8 (WKU)

    This weekend series vs. Troy is extremely critical not so much because of the RPI itself, but because of the Cajuns' record vs. the Base RPI Top 50/75/100. The Cajuns need to ensure they have a winning record vs. the Base RPI Top 50. If they do, this will be a huge plus come selection day. The Cajuns only have four potential regular season games remaining against the Base RPI Top 50 ... three games vs. #39 Troy and one game vs. #22 Rice. This weekend is the time to get it done.

    RPI Bonus Watch:
    Southern Mississippi (Base RPI Ranking #16 ... Bonus -> .0024)
    Rice (Base RPI Ranking #22 ... Bonus -> .0024)
    LSU (Base RPI Ranking #25 ... Bonus -> .0024)

    Adjusted RPI:
    30 0.5775 Mississippi State
    31 0.5754 Arizona
    32 0.5737 Alabama
    33 0.5725 North Carolina State
    34 0.5716 Florida International
    35 0.5692 California
    36 0.5678 East Tennessee State
    37 0.5676 Elon
    38 0.5659 Baylor
    39 0.5624 Mississippi
    40 0.5623 Washington State
    41 0.5614 Kent State
    42 0.5606 Creighton
    43 0.5600 Texas State
    44 0.5595 Coastal Carolina
    45 0.5595 Texas Tech
    46 0.5594 Troy
    47 0.5594 Southeastern Louisiana
    48 0.5588 UCLA
    49 0.5580 Florida Atlantic
    50 0.5561 Jacksonville
    51 0.5550 Houston
    52 0.5530 Louisiana
    53 0.5518 Alabama-Birmingham
    54 0.5512 UC Irvine
    55 0.5510 Nebraska
    56 0.5508 Rhode Island
    57 0.5494 Connecticut
    58 0.5493 Cal State Bakersfield
    59 0.5489 College of Charleston
    60 0.5488 Tulane

    Brian


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    Default Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Brian...I'm stating the obvious...but I say the game tonight is HUUUGE! Friday night games are big enough to begin with, but knowing what is now on the line, this Friday night game...which can put us in position to win the series...isthe biggest yet.

    igeaux.mobi


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    UL Baseball Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunRed View Post
    _ Brian...I'm stating the obvious...but I say the game tonight is HUUUGE! Friday night games are big enough to begin with, but knowing what is now on the line, this Friday night game...which can put us in position to win the series...isthe biggest yet.
    It is even bigger from the standpoint that this will easily be the most difficult game to win in this series. If the Cajuns can steal a win from Troy with Tyler Ray on the mound, watch out.

    Brian

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    Default Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    53 RPI ranking after last night. Tulane took our 52 spot. SLU is still dropping...now at 50.


    igeaux.mobi


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    UL Baseball Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Simply taking into account the results of tonight's UL at Troy game,
    the Cajuns will see an increase of .0040 in their RPI. The final value (increase) will depend on the results of Cajun opponents and their opponents' opponents today.

    Assuming the Cajuns' bonus of .0072 stays intact after LSU losing to Alabama today, we have thus far tonight ...

    WP: .5745
    OWP: .5529
    OOWP: .5137
    --
    Base RPI: .5485
    Adjusted RPI: .5557

    Using today's rankings, a .5557 Adjusted RPI would have the Cajuns ranked #51. However, the Cajuns should pass the following teams in tomorrow's RPI rankings ...

    - Southeastern Louisiana
    - Tulane
    - UC Irvine

    I have not checked all the permutations, but it reasonable to suggest that the Cajuns will pass these three teams and no others, while the Cajuns will not be passed by anyone ... suggesting a ranking of #50 tomorrow. Of course, some crazy results one way or the other from Cajun opponents and opponents' opponents could change things slightly.

    Brian


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    Default Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    RPI rankings as of Sunday morning...

    Cajuns 50
    SLU 51
    UC Irvine 54
    Tulane 62

    Brian...you are an RPI genius...as if we didn't already know!

    igeaux.mobi


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    UL Baseball Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    The Cajuns have an Adjusted RPI of .5544, good for a ranking of #52 after today's action. The Base RPI comes in at .5472.

    Opponents are tightly packed around the Cajuns. SLU is a mere .0004 ahead of the Cajuns at #51 and FAU is .0010 ahead at #50. Creighton is only .0015 ahead at #49.

    Connecticut is .0004 beind at #53 and UNLV is only .0007 behind at #54.

    A win over Rice could put the Cajuns in the #45, #46 range, depending on what other opponents do.

    Brian


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    Default Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Body's RPI rankings...as of Monday morning...

    Troy 45
    SLU 52
    UL 53
    UCI 57
    Tulane 59


    igeaux.mobi


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    Default Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Brian, what is your opinion of where our RPI will need to be to get in? It's pretty certain we will not be the regular season champion, baring alot of outside help and we run the table. My guess would be somewhere in the 45-47 range to have a legitimate shot?


    igeaux.mobi


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    UL Baseball Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunRed View Post
    RPI ranking...as of Monday morning...

    Troy 45
    SLU 52
    UL 53
    UCI 57
    Tulane 59
    No, these are not correct. The Cajuns are at #52 as I posted last night (through this weekend's games). Please do not post Boyd's rankings in the Adjusted RPI thread as they are not the same ... or at least identify them as such (as folks will be confused).

    The reason why the above partition of ordinal rankings you quote above is incorrect is because Boyd simply throws out ties. Because of this, instead of Connecticut having an Adjusted RPI rank of #53, Boyd has them at #51 pushing back both SLU and UL a spot.

    Here is the UL neighborhood with Boyd's pRPI in parentheses. Note how Gonzaga is inflated by five spots (I pointed this out in prior weeks)!

    50 0.5554 Florida Atlantic (#50 in pRPI)
    51 0.5548 Southeastern Louisiana (#52 in pRPI)
    52 0.5544 Louisiana (#53 in pRPI)
    53 0.5540 Connecticut (#51 in pRPI)
    54 0.5537 Nevada-Las Vegas (#54 in pRPI)
    55 0.5527 Nebraska (#56 in pRPI)
    56 0.5520 UC Irvine (#57 in pRPI)
    57 0.5518 Tulane (#59 in pRPI)
    58 0.5518 Rhode Island (#58 in pRPI)
    59 0.5511 St John's (#60 in pRPI)
    60 0.5511 Gonzaga (#55 in pRPI)

    Brian

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    UL Baseball Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Quote Originally Posted by lifetimecajun View Post
    _ Brian, what is your opinion of where our RPI will need to be to get in? It's pretty certain we will not be the regular season champion, baring alot of outside help and we run the table. My guess would be somewhere in the 45-47 range to have a legitimate shot?
    RPI is only one of the variables, though it has the most weight. I do think that the Cajuns will likely need to finish top three in conference. Finishing fourth would mean that the Cajuns would need to leapfrog a higher place finisher in the selction process. Could the Cajuns leapfrog FAU? Possibly if they are close in RPI as the season sweep would grab the selection comittee's attention. Could they leapfrog WKU? Possibly if there were a vast RPI differential as currently exists (23 spots) ... despite WKU winning 2/3. I do not have to say that it is important to beat these two teams should the Cajuns meet them in the conference tournament.

    Regardless of where the Cajuns finish (3rd, 4th, or 5th), we had better hope that if the Cajuns do not win the SBC Tournament, that FIU or Troy does. I know that the selection committee says that they do not take into account conference when determining bids ... I just do not believe it. I think it plays a role, even if it is in the back of their minds. They know exactly how many teams have been slotted from the various conferences.

    There are several variables that can mitigate the required RPI for a postseason slot. Obviously a conference championship is one. General conference finish is another. Head-to-head record vs. your competition for those final spots is important. Records vs. Top Base RPI XX is very important, as is non-conference RPI, ... etc. You get the picture. This is why I think beating Rice is important. It can help mitigate a lower RPI.

    Finally, you must take into account the # of "stolen bids" resulting from the conference tournaments. Each "stolen bid" results in one less available at-large spot for teams on the bubble. Normally, there are about three stolen bids. I have seen as many as five since the new postseason format commenced. But I want to say that for the first time ever, there were no stolen bids last season. I would need to go verify. But you get the picture as to how variable it can be and how an RPI number is simply a broad measure of what it will take because the value of the other variables changes from year-to-year.

    That said, assuming "normal" numbers everywhere else, a Top 50 RPI ranking gives the Cajuns a shot ... with each ordinal ranking position very precious. But at this point (considering the Cajun resume), nothing in the Top 40 RPI is a lock for an at-large ... whereas in some years, it would have been.

    Brian

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    UL Baseball Re: Adjusted RPI (5/6 - entering the weekend)

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    Finally, you must take into account the # of "stolen bids" resulting from the conference tournaments. Each "stolen bid" results in one less available at-large spot for teams on the bubble. Normally, there are about three stolen bids. I have seen as many as five since the new postseason format commenced. But I want to say that for the first time ever, there were no stolen bids last season. I would need to go verify. But you get the picture as to how variable it can be and how an RPI number is simply a broad measure of what it will take because the value of the other variables changes from year-to-year.
    A quick check shows that there could possibly have been as many as two "stolen bids" in 2010 and as little as none. The two teams that earned automatic bids that are arguable are ...

    Southern Mississippi (2nd place CUSA, #67 RPI ranking)
    St. John's (4th place Big East, #57 RPI ranking)

    Note that CUSA only had one at-large bid in 2010 (Rice) and the Big East had two (Louisville and Connecticut).

    Brian

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