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Thread: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

  1. #561
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    Boomer is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
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    Default Re: Side effects

    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90 View Post
    Yeah it isn't really helping much. Very high SST's in the Gulf for this time of year.

    ....Whichever one it is actually (nino or Nina) I read/saw somewhere that because of their presence we have less hurricanes but they intensify much more quickly......mentioned the one in Florida that went from zip to cat 5 in 3 days......hope Barry's numbers don't kick up in this kind of Speed!

  2. #562
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    Default Re: Side effects

    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90 View Post
    OHC.... Oceanic heat content. See below link for that. Hard to measure near shore but the GOM in general is above average for this time of year.

    https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html

    As for the Weather Channel....they got a product to sale.

    NHC forecast has been very good so far. Trust those guys or check out Tropicaltidbits.com. That site is run by Levi Cowan who is a Phd candidate at FSU. Kid has been studying atmospheric science since he could walk and is extremely good at what he does. Hasn't even finished school and veteran forecasters look to him all the time for analysis.
    Tropical tidbits is good. I get there by going to https://spaghettimodels.com/

  3. #563
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    Default Re: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

    On another note people are going nuts. I would hate to see what would happen if a bad storm was on the way. It's like we are turning into a bunch of snowflakes. I saw People buying water. Water of all things. If they want water go to your kitchen and draw water from your faucet. Store it in containers you have at your house. Worst case draw a bathtub of water. Heaven forbid if the electricity goes out and you don't have internet for a day.


  4. #564
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    Quote Originally Posted by HelmutVII View Post
    On another note people are going nuts. I would hate to see what would happen if a bad storm was on the way. It's like we are turning into a bunch of snowflakes. I saw People buying water. Water of all things. If they want water go to your kitchen and draw water from your faucet. Store it in containers you have at your house. Worst case draw a bathtub of water. Heaven forbid if the electricity goes out and you don't have internet for a day.
    It's ridiculous... my wife thinks a CAT 5 is coming... she told me to go buy just about everything but a boat... unreal

  5. #565
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    Quote Originally Posted by HelmutVII View Post
    On another note people are going nuts. I would hate to see what would happen if a bad storm was on the way. It's like we are turning into a bunch of snowflakes. I saw People buying water. Water of all things. If they want water go to your kitchen and draw water from your faucet. Store it in containers you have at your house. Worst case draw a bathtub of water. Heaven forbid if the electricity goes out and you don't have internet for a day.
    It's insane to see people buying carts and carts of food..all perishable. What are you gonna do with a month supply of bread and milk? Cargo carts with 40 cases of waster, you would swear the end of the world is near.

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    Default Re: Morganza

    Quote Originally Posted by HelmutVII View Post
    Morganza Spillway will not be opened on Sunday. May not be opened at all.

    https://katc.com/news/2019/06/06/upd...dway-canceled/
    This was a month ago.

    Would opening the Morganza Spillway then, and ongoing, have helped the current situation?

  7. #567
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    Default Re: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by crazycajun View Post
    It's insane to see people buying carts and carts of food..all perishable. What are you gonna do with a month supply of bread and milk? Cargo carts with 40 cases of water, you would swear the end of the world is near.
    Our media is more interested in selling fear than reality.

    For example, I was out near Denham Springs yesterday. Heard NOLA had a big rain storm (not a drop there). So driving back, I put on 96.5 crossing the basin and Brandon was carrying on about Hurricane Barry yada, yada, yada. So I'm thinking an Audrey scenario...the thing just blew up fast. Nope, got home, hurricane site as of 5 PM said there was three distinct low pressure centers at the time. Fake news by constantly speaking of a low system with no closed circulation by referring to it as a named storm.

    And Rob on channel 3...yes, his house flooded, as many of us, including ours. Kind of puts people on edge. But he finds the worst case scenario and throws it out there. Respect the situation, don't cause panic. He was backing down tonight, but the panic act was done, and he got people watching.

    And last...the evening 5:30 national news now features weather almost every night...fear sells. Everyone at some point is a potential victim.

    Just be smart and safe out there. If even needed.

  8. #568
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    Default Re: Morganza

    Quote Originally Posted by Turbine View Post
    This was a month ago.

    Would opening the Morganza Spillway then, and ongoing, have helped the current situation?
    No. it would have raised water levels in the basin. This storm would have raised them even more.
    either from storm surge or rainfall. If this storm goes over north and west Louisiana and dumps a lot of rain there then the Red river will discharge to the Atchafalaya and cause the water levels to rise even higher than now. There is not much gravity drainage to the Mississippi River from Louisiana. There are some areas that pump to the river. Hurricane/ tropical storm flooding in Louisiana is from storm surge on the coast or heavy rains in other areas away from the coast. There could be some issues on the Mississippi downstream of New Orleans along the Mississippi due to storm surge.

    Bottom line, since for the most part, Louisiana does not gravity drain to the Mississippi River the level of the water in the Mississippi is irrelevant to flooding in Louisiana UNLESS the levees fail. If that happens it's a different story.

  9. #569
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZoomZoom View Post
    Our media is more interested in selling fear than reality.

    For example, I was out near Denham Springs yesterday. Heard NOLA had a big rain storm (not a drop there). So driving back, I put on 96.5 crossing the basin and Brandon was carrying on about Hurricane Barry yada, yada, yada. So I'm thinking an Audrey scenario...the thing just blew up fast. Nope, got home, hurricane site as of 5 PM said there was three distinct low pressure centers at the time. Fake news by constantly speaking of a low system with no closed circulation by referring to it as a named storm.

    And Rob on channel 3...yes, his house flooded, as many of us, including ours. Kind of puts people on edge. But he finds the worst case scenario and throws it out there. Respect the situation, don't cause panic. He was backing down tonight, but the panic act was done, and he got people watching.

    And last...the evening 5:30 national news now features weather almost every night...fear sells. Everyone at some point is a potential victim.

    Just be smart and safe out there. If even needed.
    We stayed for Andrew even after seeing what it did to Florida. I don't remember this much fear mongering for a cat 5 that was having minute long sustained winds of 165mph. Stocked up on beer and charcoal and whole neighborhood brought meat as it would defrost to cook. Everybody helped everybody clean up. People are freaking out over max winds of 70mph. A platform today recorded 52mph winds....wow

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    Default Re: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

    All of our shops are closed in Broussard. They sent employees home Yesterday...at Noon! This is the shop where all of our tools in North America come out of.

    A mass email was sent out to all areas our Broussard shops support that stated employees were sent home To ensure they are safe from the approaching Hurricane.

    This is a great (and necessary) idea for a serious hurricane...just not understanding the need to shut down the whole operation for this size storm. I guess I'll just let my clients up here know that they should shut down their rig because broussard may be getting some rain and 52 mph winds.


  11. #571
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    CajunAmos is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
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    Quote Originally Posted by axg8750 View Post
    All of our shops are closed in Broussard. They sent employees home Yesterday...at Noon! This is the shop where all of our tools in North America come out of.

    A mass email was sent out to all areas our Broussard shops support that stated employees were sent home To ensure they are safe from the approaching Hurricane.

    This is a great (and necessary) idea for a serious hurricane...just not understanding the need to shut down the whole operation for this size storm. I guess I'll just let my clients up here know that they should shut down their rig because broussard may be getting some rain and 52 mph winds.
    Maybe sent them home to give them time to prep their homes from serious flooding?

  12. #572
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    Default Re: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by crazycajun View Post
    We stayed for Andrew even after seeing what it did to Florida. I don't remember this much fear mongering for a cat 5 that was having minute long sustained winds of 165mph. Stocked up on beer and charcoal and whole neighborhood brought meat as it would defrost to cook. Everybody helped everybody clean up. People are freaking out over max winds of 70mph. A platform today recorded 52mph winds....wow
    We stayed for Andrew too (in the Berry). The whole damn house was moving and you could see the walls move, then the shingles went bye bye and water poured into the house. Then we didn't have electricity for 4 or 5 days and had to dodge curfew to go get ice in Lafayette. I'll never stay for another one of those.

    This ain't that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CharlieK View Post
    We stayed for Andrew too (in the Berry). The whole damn house was moving and you could see the walls move, then the shingles went bye bye and water poured into the house. Then we didn't have electricity for 4 or 5 days and had to dodge curfew to go get ice in Lafayette. I'll never stay for another one of those.

    This ain't that.
    New Iberia through St Mary Parish took the brunt of that storm in Louisiana.

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    Default Re: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by CharlieK View Post
    We stayed for Andrew too (in the Berry). The whole damn house was moving and you could see the walls move, then the shingles went bye bye and water poured into the house. Then we didn't have electricity for 4 or 5 days and had to dodge curfew to go get ice in Lafayette. I'll never stay for another one of those.

    This ain't that.
    At one point during Andrew I was trying to look out one of the windows and actually felt the window bow. Decided then it was time to go find a safer location. And the house was certainly rocking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CharlieK View Post
    We stayed for Andrew too (in the Berry). The whole damn house was moving and you could see the walls move, then the shingles went bye bye and water poured into the house. Then we didn't have electricity for 4 or 5 days and had to dodge curfew to go get ice in Lafayette. I'll never stay for another one of those.

    This ain't that.
    I'm from the berry too, we would take people in vans to go get ice. Remember it very well and agreed, won't ever stay through one like that again and this isn't it. The media crying wolf for every single storm is what puts people in danger bc when they really should leave they don't.

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    Default Re: Side effects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bandwagon King View Post
    Those " might" be the surface temperatures, but you don't have to dig deep to find a butt load of cold water below. it wasn't very long ago a whole bunch of water feeding the whole Louisiana gulf coast was icebergs in Nebraska, Minnesota, & places even further north. And water is one of the worst conductors of heat. And we haven't had very many days this year so far where temperatures have risen above 90 degrees. So please forgive me for not jumping on that bandwagon. But I have serious doubts about those temperatures feeding this storm. if the salinity levels of the Mississippi tributaries can be affected so greatly, then the temperature levels should be affected to an even greater extent as water is an excellent carrier of sodium., heat not so much.

    Something sure is raining on the weather channel's drama parade. My guess is the icy waters of the spillways & the rivers at the tip of the toe.
    Wait, what? This thing formed essentially right where you are claiming these icy cold waters are, and thus far the predictions have been spot on. They are possibly overstating the rain numbers but I would think they would always err on the safe side there.

    Now some people's over reaction to all this is another story. You would think a group of people who have been through big storms would know better.

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    Default Re: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90 View Post
    At one point during Andrew I was trying to look out one of the windows and actually felt the window bow. Decided then it was time to go find a safer location. And the house was certainly rocking.
    And the house we were in was about 100 years old and made of all the wood in the world. We were scared ____less when you could SEE the walls shaking. Moved to the innermost room and wore out the prayers.

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    Default Re: OT: Mississippi River Aquapocalypse 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by CharlieK View Post
    And the house we were in was about 100 years old and made of all the wood in the world. We were scared ____less when you could SEE the walls shaking. Moved to the innermost room and wore out the prayers.
    For Hurricane Audrey, my dad and his entire family were in his grandparents home in Prairie Gregg, the marsh south of Erath and Delcambre. The women of the family prayed the Rosary until the storm passed. He always told me that he didn't know what scared him more, the house groaning from the winds or the women praying louder and louder as the storm would get louder.


    That house didn't make it through Rita. Storm surge cut it in half.

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    Default Re: Side effects

    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90 View Post
    OHC.... Oceanic heat content. See below link for that. Hard to measure near shore but the GOM in general is above average for this time of year.

    https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html

    As for the Weather Channel....they got a product to sale.

    NHC forecast has been very good so far. Trust those guys or check out Tropicaltidbits.com. That site is run by Levi Cowan who is a Phd candidate at FSU. Kid has been studying atmospheric science since he could walk and is extremely good at what he does. Hasn't even finished school and veteran forecasters look to him all the time for analysis.
    Thanks for the tidbit! Kid is good. A refreshingly nice and calm approach to his analysis.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90 View Post
    OHC.... Oceanic heat content. See below link for that. Hard to measure near shore but the GOM in general is above average for this time of year.

    https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html

    As for the Weather Channel....they got a product to sale.

    NHC forecast has been very good so far. Trust those guys or check out Tropicaltidbits.com. That site is run by Levi Cowan who is a Phd candidate at FSU. Kid has been studying atmospheric science since he could walk and is extremely good at what he does. Hasn't even finished school and veteran forecasters look to him all the time for analysis.
    The FSU hurricane model site is excellent. If you're into different models and parameters, this is your site.

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

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