_ _ _ _
Page 10 of 13 FirstFirst ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 LastLast
Results 181 to 200 of 252

Thread: Basketball Expectations

  1. #181
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Balanced_view View Post
    Wow, the statement of facts are incredible. on paper, it does not look like like we will be as deep, but that's not a given. depth is about how many players you have that can give you good consistent, efficient and productive minutes.

    we are losing 3 of those players. we are adding a juco CG, and freshman PG that i heard the staff expect to be those things, 1 more player steps up that did not have a big role last year, and the deep is equal. personally. i didnt think hardy played enough minutes to be added to the team depth equation last year, so with added minutes this year he could be another player counted to add depth for this year.

    again, on paper we may not look as good as last year. but every returning player should and is working to be better than they were last year. with 7 returning players or 58% of the roster, each players has the ability to determine how much growth they achieve from year to year. with over half your roster improving you have a chance to be better than the year before, especially if key players make big improvement leaps. add the new comers to that and i'm not completely sold the team CANT BE better this year. let me put it like this. lasts years team can never get any better than it was. but this years team, made up of over half of last years team still has the ability to get better each day.
    Every player returning is not a Bryce Washington, J Stove or Bartley. I'm sure there will be some improvement but the question is will there be leadership come from and the same level of productivity?

  2. #182
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Cajunsmike View Post
    I used to be as well until I realized that defenses have adjusted to everything being a 3 or a shot at the rim. A guy like Russell will get run off of the three point line and may not be able to finish at the rim. If he practices the mid range shot off the dribble he will have plenty of open looks. Not everyone can do that but it can be an effective weapon with the right player. Reason analytics show the mid range shot to be less effective is because so few players practice it. If people practiced the 15 to 18 footer, they would improve and really give the defense fits. Make a few of those and you may get the open three.
    A good shot is the best shot. Period. I've seen guys get an offensive rebound and be wide open 7 feet from the rim but instead they kick the ball out to a guy who takes a contested, double pump 3 pointer because its the preferred shot. There is no way you could explain or prove that the 3 point shot was the better shot over the open shot in the lane. Players typically shoot much higher percentages when they are not being contested. I'll take that over the slight advantage of hitting a couple extra 3 pointers.

  3. #183
    Cajunsmike is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Posts
    7,201

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by zephyr View Post
    A good shot is the best shot. Period. I've seen guys get an offensive rebound and be wide open 7 feet from the rim but instead they kick the ball out to a guy who takes a contested, double pump 3 pointer because its the preferred shot. There is no way you could explain or prove that the 3 point shot was the better shot over the open shot in the lane. Players typically shoot much higher percentages when they are not being contested. I'll take that over the slight advantage of hitting a couple extra 3 pointers.
    +1

  4. #184
    CajunEXPRESS's Avatar
    CajunEXPRESS is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    14,107

    UL Basketball Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by zephyr View Post
    A good shot is the best shot. Period. I've seen guys get an offensive rebound and be wide open 7 feet from the rim but instead they kick the ball out to a guy who takes a contested, double pump 3 pointer because its the preferred shot. There is no way you could explain or prove that the 3 point shot was the better shot over the open shot in the lane. Players typically shoot much higher percentages when they are not being contested. I'll take that over the slight advantage of hitting a couple extra 3 pointers.

    Those open mid range shots rarely exceed 45%, most people who cannot hit 30% from 3 point range don't shoot them. So you've got to hit 15 more jump shots mid range to equal 30% in a hundred shots. Not a good risk, but go ahead let y'all bias find exceptions. We're talking the typical player.

    Apparently coaches whose living depends on making the right decisions don't understand.

  5. #185
    Cajunsmike is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Posts
    7,201

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    Those open mid range shots rarely exceed 45%, most people who cannot hit 30% from 3 point range don't shoot them. So you've got to hit 15 more jump shots mid range to equal 30% in a hundred shots. Not a good risk, but go ahead let y'all bias find exceptions. We're talking the typical player.

    Apparently coaches whose living depends on making the right decisions don't understand.
    Our staff is completely bought into favoring the three or shots at the rim over mid range shots. Here is an instance where you agree with them and I don't fully. I just prefer open mid range shots over contested threes if the right player is shooting the open mid range shot. Key phrase is "contested three". If both shots are open, you are correct in that the three is a better gamble. I have no problem with open threes. What some are missing is that defenses are beginning to adjust to the new game and contest a lot more threes than they used to. That allows more open shots away from the three point line.

  6. #186
    CajunEXPRESS's Avatar
    CajunEXPRESS is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    14,107

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Well the Cajuns are hitting the threes at a very good rate. To qualify open vs contested is a straw man. Of course contested shots aren't often the best option. It's also a false qualifier to say open vs contested because in theory you avoid contested shots period, and being open isn't the result of an either/or situation.


  7. #187
    Cajunsmike is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Posts
    7,201

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    Well the Cajuns are hitting the threes at a very good rate. To qualify open vs contested is a straw man. Of course contested shots aren't often the best option. It's also a false qualifier to say open vs contested because in theory you avoid contested shots period, and being open isn't the result of an either/or situation.
    I can tell difference between an open shot and a contested one. My point about defense remains. In today's world the defenses are contesting a lot more threes than they used to. Now a guy like Cedric Russell can get his shot off quickly before the defense can set regardless of where it is from. When contested however, a pump fake and a couple of dribbles may get him an open look from eighteen feet. If he does than a couple of times and sinks the mid range, he won't have to do it too often as they will back off of him a little. Marquetti should do the same.

  8. #188
    CajunEXPRESS's Avatar
    CajunEXPRESS is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    14,107

    UL Basketball Re: Basketball Expectations

    Nope, don't agree. Mike you're actually saying that the mid range two in your example 18' is actually gonna be easier and be hit at a much higher rate than the three after a pump fake. So a shot practiced much less from essentially the same distance is the better option. Nope actually probably going in less than the one actually practiced over and over. Frankly I'm doubtful it's any less contested.

    I'm not saying never take a mid range, but definitely a minor option.

    The verdict is in. Cajuns score a lot better at threes than twos. And that includes layups

    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

    2016/17 closer to what y'all want, but still favors threes.

    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501


  9. #189
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    Those open mid range shots rarely exceed 45%, most people who cannot hit 30% from 3 point range don't shoot them. So you've got to hit 15 more jump shots mid range to equal 30% in a hundred shots. Not a good risk, but go ahead let y'all bias find exceptions. We're talking the typical player.

    Apparently coaches whose living depends on making the right decisions don't understand.
    Where is your data to support the open shot "rarely" exceeds 45%? I'd like to know this info. There is no bias. Bias to what? So you are telling me that you would rather pass up an open mid range shot but take a contested 3? Remember, we are talking about the typical player. That means a much larger discrepancy in contested percentage versus open percentage. If I have Justin Miller and Jerekius Davis out there launching them, yeah, I'd rather see if there's a better shot in the lane to take. Remember, you are talking about the typical player. Not Steph Curry. I don't know a typical player who would make more contested 3 pointers than open mid range shots.

  10. #190
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    Nope, don't agree. Mike you're actually saying that the mid range two in your example 18' is actually gonna be easier and be hit at a much higher rate than the three after a pump fake. So a shot practiced much less from essentially the same distance is the better option. Nope actually probably going in less than the one actually practiced over and over. Frankly I'm doubtful it's any less contested.

    I'm not saying never take a mid range, but definitely a minor option.
    Someone, please pin this post up please.

  11. #191
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Cajunsmike View Post
    I can tell difference between an open shot and a contested one. My point about defense remains. In today's world the defenses are contesting a lot more threes than they used to. Now a guy like Cedric Russell can get his shot off quickly before the defense can set regardless of where it is from. When contested however, a pump fake and a couple of dribbles may get him an open look from eighteen feet. If he does than a couple of times and sinks the mid range, he won't have to do it too often as they will back off of him a little. Marquetti should do the same.
    Mike, you are absolutely right. The defenses now talk about "Running the shooter off the line". This means they are selling out to contest the 3 in hopes that the shooter will put the ball on the floor or pass it. This is absolutely creating more space in the lane and mid range part of the court and Bartley made a living there last year. As a team, we shot 36% from 3 point range this past year. That is not going to win us games when teams are contesting everything we shoot since many of our attempts were open good shots after Stroman penetrated and kicked out.

  12. #192
    CajunEXPRESS's Avatar
    CajunEXPRESS is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Posts
    14,107

    UL Basketball Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by zephyr View Post
    Where is your data to support the open shot "rarely" exceeds 45%? I'd like to know this info. There is no bias. Bias to what? So you are telling me that you would rather pass up an open mid range shot but take a contested 3? Remember, we are talking about the typical player. That means a much larger discrepancy in contested percentage versus open percentage. If I have Justin Miller and Jerekius Davis out there launching them, yeah, I'd rather see if there's a better shot in the lane to take. Remember, you are talking about the typical player. Not Steph Curry. I don't know a typical player who would make more contested 3 pointers than open mid range shots.
    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

    Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.

    16/17 stats closer to y'all desired goals, but threes still producing more points and again a lotta layups as opposed to mid range threes.

    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501

  13. #193
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

    Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.

    16/17 stats closer to y'all desired goals, but threes still producing more points and again a lotta layups as opposed to mid range threes.

    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501
    You aren't going to post anything that is going to lend credence to what you are saying. Mike is absolutely right. Our game is not the same as that of high powered teams in the NBA who have the personnel to favor such a scheme. Look at the Houston Rockets. They were actually the team I was referring to in my example of the pass out for double pump 3 (Chris Paul). When CP3 is his most effective, he is getting in the lane and hitting 15 footers like they are layups. When he is not covered and uncontested, they are layups to the typical NBA player. When they are forcing the 3, it is not hit at nearly the same percentage when contested and this goes for James Harden.

    I went to start adding on to the rest of this post and i just thought that it's easier to say that you have to have the personnel to rack up 3's at an alarming rate, even contested. Not many teams on the collegiate level have that, if any, and you will always see how important the inside and mid range game are, especially in college.

    Also, I'd say that the whole 3 point barrage thing is great and looks good and gets kids excited but when the game is on the line and your butt's puckering up, any coach will look at an open 12 footer and be happy with that shot.

  14. #194
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

    Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.

    16/17 stats closer to y'all desired goals, but threes still producing more points and again a lotta layups as opposed to mid range threes.

    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501
    What is a mid range 3?

  15. #195
    Join Date
    Jun 2002
    Posts
    284

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=3026

    Cajuns score 36% with threes and around 45% with twos including layups. I'll infer mid range probably less than layups.


    https://ragincajuns.com/documents/20...ed.pdf?id=1501
    The 2 point FG% last year was actually 52%--the 46% includes all field goals (2 pointers and 3 pointers)

  16. #196
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Another point on this. We return exactly two whole guys (Russell, Marquetti) who shot over 35% from 3pt range. If we continue the trend of high usage from the outside, we may be in for some disappointment. That is not to say we can't have guys improve but we will have to be able to generate offense from everywhere, not just the perimeter.

    Goes back to having the personnel to match the analytics. Don't think we have that next year.


  17. #197
    Boomer's Avatar
    Boomer is online now Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
    Join Date
    Jun 2002
    Posts
    19,121

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunEXPRESS View Post
    Well the Cajuns are hitting the threes at a very good rate. To qualify open vs contested is a straw man. Of course contested shots aren't often the best option. It's also a false qualifier to say open vs contested because in theory you avoid contested shots period, and being open isn't the result of an either/or situation.
    ...I remember when my daughter played and would get a few offensive boards.....I would call the inside the land of the Giants.....if she went back up with an inside shot a six 2-4 girl would definitely reject it and as defenders naturally faded in our all conference guard positioned for an open 3......near the end of the year Wash was getting some rejects or being forced into bad shots inside.....probably an outside pass would get a 3 point attempt with limited defense contesting!

  18. #198
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by Boomer View Post
    ...I remember when my daughter played and would get a few offensive boards.....I would call the inside the land of the Giants.....if she went back up with an inside shot a six 2-4 girl would definitely reject it and as defenders naturally faded in our all conference guard positioned for an open 3......near the end of the year Wash was getting some rejects or being forced into bad shots inside.....probably an outside pass would get a 3 point attempt with limited defense contesting!
    Again, this is apples to oranges. Express literally said a contested 3 is better than an open mid range shot. I don't think any coach out there would support that scenario. An open 3 shot by Cedric Russel or Frank Bartley versus anything shot by Justin Miller regardless of range is preferable.

  19. #199
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Posts
    659

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Let's remember something.

    33% from three is worth as much as 50% from two.


  20. #200
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Lafayette, LA
    Posts
    9,130

    Default Re: Basketball Expectations

    Quote Originally Posted by talktomewillis View Post
    Let's remember something.

    33% from three is worth as much as 50% from two.
    And lets remember that if we don't have the personnel to hit from 3, it doesn't matter. If this particular team were to shoot the number of 3's we shot last year, we won't shoot 33%. Let me ask you this, if Justin Miller had the ball would you rather him shooting a little baby hook from 6 feet in the lane or a contested 3? Remember, he's not very good at either one but he shot like 28% from 3 last year and many of those shots were wide open.

Page 10 of 13 FirstFirst ... 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •