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Thread: The impact of the ULM series ...

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    UL Baseball The impact of the ULM series ...

    In the interest of stemming some confusion that I have heard (not just on RP), here is the skinny on this weekend's series vs. ULM and how it impacts the Cajuns' quest for an at-large bid ... for which I believe the Cajuns would not qualify at this time (despite the D1Baseball.com projections ... and I have explained why) ... but is still a possibility.

    #1 The ULM series impact on the Cajuns' RPI is not the most important consideration. Obtaining more conference wins, improving their conference record, and surpassing Georgia Southern for fourth place in the Sun Belt is very important. And even though they cannot catch South Alabama ... and likely will not catch Coastal Carolina or UTA ... the closer they can get (conference record), the better.

    #2 Contrary to what people seem to think, the Cajuns sweeping ULM will not have an adverse impact on the Cajuns' RPI. It will be a wash. This is due to the Cajuns playing this series on the road. Understand that this calculation is performed as if the Cajuns and ULM are the only ones playing games this weekend. Of course, other games (opponents, opponents' opponents) and how the teams around the Cajuns in the RPI rankings move will impact where the Cajuns land in the RPI rankings after this weekend. But the RPI impact of the ULM series itself is not negative, assuming no losses.

    #3 Any loss to ULM would be considered a "bad loss" in the eyes of the committee. While this is not a primary metric by any means, it could be utilized when evaluating teams that are tight (on the bubble).

    #4 The Cajuns have a very strong record against the RPI Top 50 (10-8-1) and have some significant wins on their resume. Southern Mississippi (two wins) may be hosting and Texas (one win) looks like a #2 seed (3-3 record vs. RPI Top 25). Taking 2/3 from South Alabama, sweeping McNeese 2-0, and splitting with Louisiana Tech is not bad either. RPI Top 50 record is the most significant positive on the Cajuns' resume.

    #5 Obviously to have a chance at an at-large bid, the Cajuns need to win this weekend and have a strong showing in the Sun Belt Tournament. Making it to the finals of the tournament and losing (finishing 6-1) would put them in consideration. But as discussed, there are many variables. #1 is important above ... and the number of stolen bids will play a significant role. Stolen bids occur when the automatic bid is not won by one of the teams that would qualify as an at-large team (in a conference with at minimum one at-large qualifier).

    Oh ... and before anyone asks the weekly question ... the Cajuns would have a current RPI rank of #36 (currently #48) ... very close to #35 ... had they not played Saint Peter's.

    Brian


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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    As always appreciate the info Brian.


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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post

    Oh ... and before anyone asks the weekly question ... the Cajuns would have a current RPI rank of #36 (currently #48) ... very close to #35 ... had they not played Saint Peter's.

    Brian
    Where do you think we would we be if say.. St Peter's was a .500 team..

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    why did y'alls AD schedule St Peters?


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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by techdawg88 View Post
    why did y'alls AD schedule St Peters?
    Not the AD.

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post


    #4 The Cajuns have a very strong record against the RPI Top 50 (10-8-1) and have some significant wins on their resume. Southern Mississippi (two wins) may be hosting and Texas (one win) looks like a #2 seed (3-3 record vs. RPI Top 25). Taking 2/3 from South Alabama, sweeping McNeese 2-0, and splitting with Louisiana Tech is not bad either. RPI Top 50 record is the most significant positive on the Cajuns' resume.

    .

    Brian
    I found this especially interesting. Despite the bellyaching we have some quality wins this season and yes some mind-numbing losses and a tie (taking a lead into the 9th). 3-3 v Top 25... I guess that is why I keep saying if we are a bubble (and that assumes the 6-1 finish) I think we have a very good shot.. Brian who knows more than I could ever dream of knowing calls it "in consideration"... I maintain we have built a rep over the past few years and I think 6-1 gets us in... We shall see

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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by techdawg88 View Post
    why did y'alls AD schedule St Peters?
    We scheduled them a few years ago and didn't expect them to go 0-fer for the year.

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by IHateLaState View Post
    I found this especially interesting. Despite the bellyaching we have some quality wins this season and yes some mind-numbing losses and a tie (taking a lead into the 9th). 3-3 v Top 25... I guess that is why I keep saying if we are a bubble (and that assumes the 6-1 finish) I think we have a very good shot.. Brian who knows more than I could ever dream of knowing calls it "in consideration"... I maintain we have built a rep over the past few years and I think 6-1 gets us in... We shall see

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunJack55 View Post
    Where do you think we would we be if say.. St Peter's was a .500 team..
    Your RPI would be higher by .015, good enough to bump from .5518 (48th) now to .5668 (33rd) and bump Tech down to 34th.

    A sweep against ULM (not taking into account results of other games) will bump your RPI down, but only .0006, which would only drop you one place. If ULM gets lucky and happens to upset the Cajuns, it will drop you around 6 RPI spots per loss.

  10. #10

    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    ULM's AD doesn't want to stick around

    http://www.thenewsstar.com/story/spo...ion/101832782/


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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by techdawg88 View Post
    ULM's AD doesn't want to stick around

    http://www.thenewsstar.com/story/spo...ion/101832782/
    And I also heard this am on the radio...if you remove the St. Peter's weekend from our schedule, our SOS would be #3

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by lifetimecajun View Post
    And I also heard this am on the radio...if you remove the St. Peter's weekend from our schedule, our SOS would be #3
    If this is what you heard, you heard utter nonsense.

    Brian

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    If this is what you heard, you heard utter nonsense.

    Brian
    I think I saw it posted as non conference SOS.

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by zharkins View Post
    Your RPI would be higher by .015, good enough to bump from .5518 (48th) now to .5668 (33rd) and bump Tech down to 34th.
    If Saint Peter's were 17-17-1 (still swept by the Cajuns), the Cajuns' RPI would be .56727 ... still good for #33 in the current RPI rankings.

    Brian

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    If Saint Peter's were 17-17-1 (still swept by the Cajuns), the Cajuns' RPI would be .56727 ... still good for #33 in the current RPI rankings.

    Brian
    damn...

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunAmos View Post
    I think I saw it posted as non conference SOS.
    For non-conference SOS, this is absolutely true (.58862).

    Overall, SOS would be ranked #33 (.55570).

    Brian

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    St. Peters hasn't been .500 since Abner Doubleday was head coach.


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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    If this is what you heard, you heard utter nonsense.

    Brian
    I heard the same thing. Came from Dave Scholtz.

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    Default Re: The impact of the ULM series ...

    Quote Originally Posted by RaisingCajun08 View Post
    I heard the same thing. Came from Dave Scholtz.
    Not overall SOS ... this is 33. NC SOS. See above rankings I provided.

    Brian

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    For non-conference SOS, this is absolutely true (.58862).

    Overall, SOS would be ranked #33 (.55570).

    Brian
    This situation reinforces my belief that the RPI is too heavily schedule based. You only control 25 percent of results from your play. Instead of a 25-50-25 basis it should be 40-35-25. You would still have schedule as a significant component in that system but not nearly to same degree. I bet the major schools would fight that change.

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