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Thread: Baseball rpi

  1. #241
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Thanks Brian. That's a whole lot or extra work to say we have our work but out for us... just win baby. Appreciate the analysis you bring


  2. #242
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Dude is dropping science up in here.


  3. #243
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    UL Baseball Re: Baseball rpi

    Oops, almost forgot the weekly regular ...

    Had the Cajuns not played the series vs. Saint Peter's, they would have a current RPI rank of #37.

    Brian

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    You said that "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation" ... meaning, there is no path to which an at-large bid is possible. I disagree with that ... and it seems that you do as well per your additional statement above (inferring that winning 85% of the remaining games would be a path to an at-large bid). BTW, D1Baseball also disagrees with your original assessment as the Cajuns are currently in consideration for an at-large bid and are bubble-out at the moment.

    If you agree that there is a path to an at-large bid, then we can bury my disagreement with your statement and move to peel the onion a bit.

    I will preface all of this by saying that if I were asked my opinion concerning the Cajuns ultimately earning an at-large bid, I will say that it is possible, but that there is probably better than a 50% chance it will not happen given their current position and the play of last weekend. That can certainly change ... and there are several variables at play that are independent of what the Cajuns do on the field. But I am not conflating my opinion of whether or not the Cajuns will earn an at-large bid with there being paths available to an at-large bid (which there are).

    Some scenarios ...

    1) If the Cajuns win 85% of their remaining games (meaning 13/15) and do not win the conference tournament, an at-large bid is a slam dunk. This would leave them with an RPI at about 34 (all other things being equal), at minimum a third place conference finish, and a solid record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50. Their NC RPI would also have an excellent shot of moving into the Top 50.

    2) I also modeled winning 12/15 ... it places the Cajuns around #41 in RPI. Even 11/15 leaves them in the Top 50 RPI (at present). Keep in mind that it does not take much to move from 50 from 59 ... as the pack is tight. #41 is not far away either.

    3) I refer back to the Cajuns' record vs. the RPI Top 25 and more importantly, the Top 50. 7-7 is solid and the Cajuns have a chance to up that against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State (at home) and potentially others in the Sun Belt Tournament.

    Some important things to note ...

    I talk about this every year ... when you are on the bubble, probably the most influential factor is the number of stolen bids that year. The number does vary. In a good year (2 stolen bids) ... the Cajuns could finish 9-6 and make the field with an RPI in the low to mid 50's. In a bad year (Ex. 6 or 7 stolen bids), the Cajuns could finish 12-3 and there is a risk they do not make the field as an at-large. We do not know what is going to happen here ... which is why I chuckle when I see definitive statements about a cut-off point with respect to the RPI when assessing whether an at-large will be awarded. The cut-off varies.

    Some data points around this ... over the last six years the range of stolen bids has been between two and seven ... with three being very common. The last three years saw 3, 3, and 2. We had a six stolen bid year in 2013.

    If we look at just last year (three stolen bid year), we had seven (7) at-large bids awarded to teams with an RPI ranking of 40+. This includes three (3) at-large bids between 50 and 55. These teams finished anywhere from 1st in conference to tied for 3rd (with two other teams). Four of these teams had NC RPIs of 64+ with a high of 93. Records vs. the RPI Top 50 varied between 8-5 and 3-5 (three had losing records). One team was 10-8 vs. teams ranked 150+.

    #55 Washington
    #52 Long Beach State
    #50 Minnesota
    #49 South Alabama
    #47 Nebraska
    #43 Arizona State
    #40 SLU

    This is just one year.

    There are many paths still available to an at-large bid. It starts with a series win this weekend. A sweep is not necessary ... but I think winning the series will be very important in getting this team back on track.

    Brian

  4. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    Oops, almost forgot the weekly regular ...

    Had the Cajuns not played the series vs. Saint Peter's, they would have a current RPI rank of #37.

    Brian
    The gift that keeps giving....

  5. #245
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Btw, I'm looking forward to watching Gunner on the bump on Friday at the Tigue while consuming beer.


  6. #246
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    You said that "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation" ... meaning, there is no path to which an at-large bid is possible. I disagree with that ... and it seems that you do as well per your additional statement above (inferring that winning 85% of the remaining games would be a path to an at-large bid). BTW, D1Baseball also disagrees with your original assessment as the Cajuns are currently in consideration for an at-large bid and are bubble-out at the moment.

    If you agree that there is a path to an at-large bid, then we can bury my disagreement with your statement and move to peel the onion a bit.

    I will preface all of this by saying that if I were asked my opinion concerning the Cajuns ultimately earning an at-large bid, I will say that it is possible, but that there is probably better than a 50% chance it will not happen given their current position and the play of last weekend. That can certainly change ... and there are several variables at play that are independent of what the Cajuns do on the field. But I am not conflating my opinion of whether or not the Cajuns will earn an at-large bid with there being paths available to an at-large bid (which there are).

    Some scenarios ...

    1) If the Cajuns win 85% of their remaining games (meaning 13/15) and do not win the conference tournament, an at-large bid is a slam dunk. This would leave them with an RPI at about 34 (all other things being equal), at minimum a third place conference finish, and a solid record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50. Their NC RPI would also have an excellent shot of moving into the Top 50.

    2) I also modeled winning 12/15 ... it places the Cajuns around #41 in RPI. Even 11/15 leaves them in the Top 50 RPI (at present). Keep in mind that it does not take much to move from 50 from 59 ... as the pack is tight. #41 is not far away either.

    3) I refer back to the Cajuns' record vs. the RPI Top 25 and more importantly, the Top 50. 7-7 is solid and the Cajuns have a chance to up that against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State (at home) and potentially others in the Sun Belt Tournament.

    Some important things to note ...

    I talk about this every year ... when you are on the bubble, probably the most influential factor is the number of stolen bids that year. The number does vary. In a good year (2 stolen bids) ... the Cajuns could finish 9-6 and make the field with an RPI in the low to mid 50's. In a bad year (Ex. 6 or 7 stolen bids), the Cajuns could finish 12-3 and there is a risk they do not make the field as an at-large. We do not know what is going to happen here ... which is why I chuckle when I see definitive statements about a cut-off point with respect to the RPI when assessing whether an at-large will be awarded. The cut-off varies.

    Some data points around this ... over the last six years the range of stolen bids has been between two and seven ... with three being very common. The last three years saw 3, 3, and 2. We had a six stolen bid year in 2013.

    If we look at just last year (three stolen bid year), we had seven (7) at-large bids awarded to teams with an RPI ranking of 40+. This includes three (3) at-large bids between 50 and 55. These teams finished anywhere from 1st in conference to tied for 3rd (with two other teams). Four of these teams had NC RPIs of 64+ with a high of 93. Records vs. the RPI Top 50 varied between 8-5 and 3-5 (three had losing records). One team was 10-8 vs. teams ranked 150+.

    #55 Washington
    #52 Long Beach State
    #50 Minnesota
    #49 South Alabama
    #47 Nebraska
    #43 Arizona State
    #40 SLU

    This is just one year.

    There are many paths still available to an at-large bid. It starts with a series win this weekend. A sweep is not necessary ... but I think winning the series will be very important in getting this team back on track.

    Brian
    Damnnn. I appreciate the in-depth analysis and explanation.

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    You said that "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation" ... meaning, there is no path to which an at-large bid is possible. I disagree with that ... and it seems that you do as well per your additional statement above (inferring that winning 85% of the remaining games would be a path to an at-large bid). BTW, D1Baseball also disagrees with your original assessment as the Cajuns are currently in consideration for an at-large bid and are bubble-out at the moment.

    If you agree that there is a path to an at-large bid, then we can bury my disagreement with your statement and move to peel the onion a bit.

    I will preface all of this by saying that if I were asked my opinion concerning the Cajuns ultimately earning an at-large bid, I will say that it is possible, but that there is probably better than a 50% chance it will not happen given their current position and the play of last weekend. That can certainly change ... and there are several variables at play that are independent of what the Cajuns do on the field. But I am not conflating my opinion of whether or not the Cajuns will earn an at-large bid with there being paths available to an at-large bid (which there are).

    Some scenarios ...

    1) If the Cajuns win 85% of their remaining games (meaning 13/15) and do not win the conference tournament, an at-large bid is a slam dunk. This would leave them with an RPI at about 34 (all other things being equal), at minimum a third place conference finish, and a solid record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50. Their NC RPI would also have an excellent shot of moving into the Top 50.

    2) I also modeled winning 12/15 ... it places the Cajuns around #41 in RPI. Even 11/15 leaves them in the Top 50 RPI (at present). Keep in mind that it does not take much to move from 50 from 59 ... as the pack is tight. #41 is not far away either.

    3) I refer back to the Cajuns' record vs. the RPI Top 25 and more importantly, the Top 50. 7-7 is solid and the Cajuns have a chance to up that against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State (at home) and potentially others in the Sun Belt Tournament.

    Some important things to note ...

    I talk about this every year ... when you are on the bubble, probably the most influential factor is the number of stolen bids that year. The number does vary. In a good year (2 stolen bids) ... the Cajuns could finish 9-6 and make the field with an RPI in the low to mid 50's. In a bad year (Ex. 6 or 7 stolen bids), the Cajuns could finish 12-3 and there is a risk they do not make the field as an at-large. We do not know what is going to happen here ... which is why I chuckle when I see definitive statements about a cut-off point with respect to the RPI when assessing whether an at-large will be awarded. The cut-off varies.

    Some data points around this ... over the last six years the range of stolen bids has been between two and seven ... with three being very common. The last three years saw 3, 3, and 2. We had a six stolen bid year in 2013.

    If we look at just last year (three stolen bid year), we had seven (7) at-large bids awarded to teams with an RPI ranking of 40+. This includes three (3) at-large bids between 50 and 55. These teams finished anywhere from 1st in conference to tied for 3rd (with two other teams). Four of these teams had NC RPIs of 64+ with a high of 93. Records vs. the RPI Top 50 varied between 8-5 and 3-5 (three had losing records). One team was 10-8 vs. teams ranked 150+.

    #55 Washington
    #52 Long Beach State
    #50 Minnesota
    #49 South Alabama
    #47 Nebraska
    #43 Arizona State
    #40 SLU

    This is just one year.

    There are many paths still available to an at-large bid. It starts with a series win this weekend. A sweep is not necessary ... but I think winning the series will be very important in getting this team back on track.

    Brian
    This is money!

  8. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    You said that "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation" ... meaning, there is no path to which an at-large bid is possible. I disagree with that ... and it seems that you do as well per your additional statement above (inferring that winning 85% of the remaining games would be a path to an at-large bid). BTW, D1Baseball also disagrees with your original assessment as the Cajuns are currently in consideration for an at-large bid and are bubble-out at the moment.

    If you agree that there is a path to an at-large bid, then we can bury my disagreement with your statement and move to peel the onion a bit.

    I will preface all of this by saying that if I were asked my opinion concerning the Cajuns ultimately earning an at-large bid, I will say that it is possible, but that there is probably better than a 50% chance it will not happen given their current position and the play of last weekend. That can certainly change ... and there are several variables at play that are independent of what the Cajuns do on the field. But I am not conflating my opinion of whether or not the Cajuns will earn an at-large bid with there being paths available to an at-large bid (which there are).

    Some scenarios ...

    1) If the Cajuns win 85% of their remaining games (meaning 13/15) and do not win the conference tournament, an at-large bid is a slam dunk. This would leave them with an RPI at about 34 (all other things being equal), at minimum a third place conference finish, and a solid record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50. Their NC RPI would also have an excellent shot of moving into the Top 50.

    2) I also modeled winning 12/15 ... it places the Cajuns around #41 in RPI. Even 11/15 leaves them in the Top 50 RPI (at present). Keep in mind that it does not take much to move from 50 from 59 ... as the pack is tight. #41 is not far away either.

    3) I refer back to the Cajuns' record vs. the RPI Top 25 and more importantly, the Top 50. 7-7 is solid and the Cajuns have a chance to up that against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State (at home) and potentially others in the Sun Belt Tournament.

    Some important things to note ...

    I talk about this every year ... when you are on the bubble, probably the most influential factor is the number of stolen bids that year. The number does vary. In a good year (2 stolen bids) ... the Cajuns could finish 9-6 and make the field with an RPI in the low to mid 50's. In a bad year (Ex. 6 or 7 stolen bids), the Cajuns could finish 12-3 and there is a risk they do not make the field as an at-large. We do not know what is going to happen here ... which is why I chuckle when I see definitive statements about a cut-off point with respect to the RPI when assessing whether an at-large will be awarded. The cut-off varies.

    Some data points around this ... over the last six years the range of stolen bids has been between two and seven ... with three being very common. The last three years saw 3, 3, and 2. We had a six stolen bid year in 2013.

    If we look at just last year (three stolen bid year), we had seven (7) at-large bids awarded to teams with an RPI ranking of 40+. This includes three (3) at-large bids between 50 and 55. These teams finished anywhere from 1st in conference to tied for 3rd (with two other teams). Four of these teams had NC RPIs of 64+ with a high of 93. Records vs. the RPI Top 50 varied between 8-5 and 3-5 (three had losing records). One team was 10-8 vs. teams ranked 150+.

    #55 Washington
    #52 Long Beach State
    #50 Minnesota
    #49 South Alabama
    #47 Nebraska
    #43 Arizona State
    #40 SLU

    This is just one year.

    There are many paths still available to an at-large bid. It starts with a series win this weekend. A sweep is not necessary ... but I think winning the series will be very important in getting this team back on track.

    Brian
    Now how the hell am I supposed to rebut that?
    Let's Geaux win a series this weekend.

  9. #249
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    You said that "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation" ... meaning, there is no path to which an at-large bid is possible. I disagree with that ... and it seems that you do as well per your additional statement above (inferring that winning 85% of the remaining games would be a path to an at-large bid). BTW, D1Baseball also disagrees with your original assessment as the Cajuns are currently in consideration for an at-large bid and are bubble-out at the moment.

    If you agree that there is a path to an at-large bid, then we can bury my disagreement with your statement and move to peel the onion a bit.

    I will preface all of this by saying that if I were asked my opinion concerning the Cajuns ultimately earning an at-large bid, I will say that it is possible, but that there is probably better than a 50% chance it will not happen given their current position and the play of last weekend. That can certainly change ... and there are several variables at play that are independent of what the Cajuns do on the field. But I am not conflating my opinion of whether or not the Cajuns will earn an at-large bid with there being paths available to an at-large bid (which there are).

    Some scenarios ...

    1) If the Cajuns win 85% of their remaining games (meaning 13/15) and do not win the conference tournament, an at-large bid is a slam dunk. This would leave them with an RPI at about 34 (all other things being equal), at minimum a third place conference finish, and a solid record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50. Their NC RPI would also have an excellent shot of moving into the Top 50.

    2) I also modeled winning 12/15 ... it places the Cajuns around #41 in RPI. Even 11/15 leaves them in the Top 50 RPI (at present). Keep in mind that it does not take much to move from 50 from 59 ... as the pack is tight. #41 is not far away either.

    3) I refer back to the Cajuns' record vs. the RPI Top 25 and more importantly, the Top 50. 7-7 is solid and the Cajuns have a chance to up that against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State (at home) and potentially others in the Sun Belt Tournament.

    Some important things to note ...

    I talk about this every year ... when you are on the bubble, probably the most influential factor is the number of stolen bids that year. The number does vary. In a good year (2 stolen bids) ... the Cajuns could finish 9-6 and make the field with an RPI in the low to mid 50's. In a bad year (Ex. 6 or 7 stolen bids), the Cajuns could finish 12-3 and there is a risk they do not make the field as an at-large. We do not know what is going to happen here ... which is why I chuckle when I see definitive statements about a cut-off point with respect to the RPI when assessing whether an at-large will be awarded. The cut-off varies.

    Some data points around this ... over the last six years the range of stolen bids has been between two and seven ... with three being very common. The last three years saw 3, 3, and 2. We had a six stolen bid year in 2013.

    If we look at just last year (three stolen bid year), we had seven (7) at-large bids awarded to teams with an RPI ranking of 40+. This includes three (3) at-large bids between 50 and 55. These teams finished anywhere from 1st in conference to tied for 3rd (with two other teams). Four of these teams had NC RPIs of 64+ with a high of 93. Records vs. the RPI Top 50 varied between 8-5 and 3-5 (three had losing records). One team was 10-8 vs. teams ranked 150+.

    #55 Washington
    #52 Long Beach State
    #50 Minnesota
    #49 South Alabama
    #47 Nebraska
    #43 Arizona State
    #40 SLU

    This is just one year.

    There are many paths still available to an at-large bid. It starts with a series win this weekend. A sweep is not necessary ... but I think winning the series will be very important in getting this team back on track.

    Brian
    Yes, thanks sir. It's why your word is good here!

  10. #250
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Quote Originally Posted by ManAboutTown View Post
    Now how the hell am I supposed to rebut that?
    Let's Geaux win a series this weekend.
    Let's do it.

    Brian

  11. #251
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    YUUUGE game today. St. Peters going winless looks more likely after cancelling their next two games.


  12. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dad04 View Post
    YUUUGE game today. St. Peters going winless looks more likely after cancelling their next two games.


    Man very time I hear the name st peters I start to itch... think I'm allergic to them. Anyway , today is the perfect example of a must win. Let's see what our guys are made of

  13. #253
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    raginsaints is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Brian, does the committee ever look at radical outliers like the St. Peter's series and toss them out when considering tournament bids?


  14. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by raginsaints View Post
    Brian, does the committee ever look at radical outliers like the St. Peter's series and toss them out when considering tournament bids?
    ....and reduce our wins by three - so right now we would be 25-18-1?

  15. #255
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    raginsaints is offline Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Greatest Fan Ever
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    I'd be a lot more comfortable at 25-18-1 and no RPI murdering series than 28-18-1 with a series against a winless team


  16. #256
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Quote Originally Posted by raginsaints View Post
    I'd be a lot more comfortable at 25-18-1 and no RPI murdering series than 28-18-1 with a series against a winless team
    Neither is good but my point is if you "don't count those games for RPI" you could expect not to reap the benefit of the wins as well.

    Either way it isn't happening. Historically you have a better shot at a strong SOS and lower WP than a high WP and low SOS.

  17. #257
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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Huge game for Hogan today. A loss today and we can probably stop worrying about RPI and at large bids. I'm sure it would still be mathematically possible, but highly unlikely.

    The next 3 games are as close to "must win" as it gets.


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    UL Baseball Re: Baseball rpi

    Quote Originally Posted by raginsaints View Post
    Brian, does the committee ever look at radical outliers like the St. Peter's series and toss them out when considering tournament bids?
    I have seen zero evidence, since RPI became the committee's tool (20+ years), that the selection committee would take this into account. This is despite several coaches complaining over the years about some opponents dragging down their RPI (near selection time). The principal problem is ... it is a slippery slope. Where do you draw the line?

    It would also be admitting to a serious flaw in the RPI ... and the pressure would be on to fix it.

    Brian

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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfanatic21 View Post
    Huge game for Hogan today. A loss today and we can probably stop worrying about RPI and at large bids. I'm sure it would still be mathematically possible, but highly unlikely.

    The next 3 games are as close to "must win" as it gets.
    No. Today's game is extremely important. As far as midweek is concerned, win 1/2 and the Cajuns are on schedule (assuming a win today). The must for midweek is winning one of the two ... not both.

    My concern is that the loss of Izzy is too much to overcome with a lineup that has struggled to produce. I would have rather lost a starting pitcher (not Gunner).

    Brian

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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    I know it may be too late in the season for such a drastic change but any thoughts of trying out Todd Lott in RF? He was an OF in high school but a medical issue to his throwing arm basically rendered him to the DH spot. Is his throwing arm back to 100%? With Izzy being out for the remainder of the season, it may be worth the risk to give it a shot.


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