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Thread: Baseball rpi

  1. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by angeleast View Post
    When Brian declares we "must" win the tourney then I will worry more. BUt, i'm not going to lie. We better get our ___es in gear
    Guess what, you can make Brian the end all be all but if we finish 3rd in conference and don't win tourney it over. He can put whetev formula he wants into it. It's a fail. MAT is correct, I think we have 11 games left we need to win 10 of them

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Buds View Post
    I am now of the belief we must win the remaining series, midweek games and make it to Sunday to get in.
    We definitely get in under this scenario.

  3. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    I am referring to your statement "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation".

    An at-large bid is still a possibility. Simple as that. And they do not need another nine game winning streak to do it ... but they need to play good baseball (as they were prior to last weekend), probably finish Top 3 in conference, and have a decent Sun Belt Tournament. Will they do it? Nobody knows. But it is not yet a "win the tournament or stay home situation".

    Brian
    Sorry GG, I disagree. I hope like hell im wrong, but outside of a 9 game stretch in April, our sample size is pretty clear. I'll say again, expecting this team to win 85% of its remaining games is lofty. It would be lofty to EXPECT any team to do so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ManAboutTown View Post
    Sorry GG, I disagree. I hope like hell im wrong, but outside of a 9 game stretch in April, our sample size is pretty clear. I'll say again, expecting this team to win 85% of its remaining games is lofty. It would be lofty to EXPECT any team to do so.
    I 'll put it this way, I agree with brian that it is possible if we over perform.. it's possible. But not probable. I think Brian was trying to say its still in play if we win at a very high percentage here on out. But I don't see that happening. With Brian statistical analysis he ll be the first to know when we are past the point of no return and we have to win the tourney. Will we win 85% or 90%, I hope but but I would not bet on it.

  5. #225
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    I think our history will play into a decision. I also think that the SP series will be thrown out as an outlier. So if we play well down the stretch (not putting a number on it) and do well in the tourney (not win because that of course puts us in anyway), then I think we will be last five in first five out.... In that scenario I'm thinking we get in...

    Now I don't have any inside sources nor do I work the numbers (thanks GG) I just think we have built a rep over the years that gets us consideration where 5 years ago we may not.... Anyway let's win tonight


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    Quote Originally Posted by IHateLaState View Post
    I think our history will play into a decision. I also think that the SP series will be thrown out as an outlier. So if we play well down the stretch (not putting a number on it) and do well in the tourney (not win because that of course puts us in anyway), then I think we will be last five in first five out.... In that scenario I'm thinking we get in...

    Now I don't have any inside sources nor do I work the numbers (thanks GG) I just think we have built a rep over the years that gets us consideration where 5 years ago we may not.... Anyway let's win tonight
    sweeping this series is a must. If we shat the bed and go 1-2 all this speculation is irrelevant. A sweep for the good guys makes our goals more obtainable .

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by IHateLaState View Post
    I think our history will play into a decision. I also think that the SP series will be thrown out as an outlier. So if we play well down the stretch (not putting a number on it) and do well in the tourney (not win because that of course puts us in anyway), then I think we will be last five in first five out.... In that scenario I'm thinking we get in...

    Now I don't have any inside sources nor do I work the numbers (thanks GG) I just think we have built a rep over the years that gets us consideration where 5 years ago we may not.... Anyway let's win tonight
    Our history isn't going to help us get in. Nor is that SP series getting tossed. If anything it will used against us beyond what it has done to our RPI number. It can be a prime example of how we didn't put together a strong schedule.

  8. #228
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    On a positive, the future scheduling is much better. For out of conference, obviously there are some tougher high level teams (Texas, Maryland and Minute Maid Classic). Also, Bab mentioned we have Wright St as a home series which is a very solid RPI building team as they are usually a higher WP and typically a regional team. Continuing the series with SHSU as well in coming years.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90 View Post
    Our history isn't going to help us get in. Nor is that SP series getting tossed. If anything it will used against us beyond what it has done to our RPI number. It can be a prime example of how we didn't put together a strong schedule.
    This is where I fall on the issue, and is a big reason I feel the way I do.

  10. #230
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    Luc's sophomore year, we were 39-20 with a 56 RPI and didn't get in. We are at 59 right now.


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    Said it a couple weeks ago...we better win the tourney


  12. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManAboutTown View Post
    This is where I fall on the issue, and is a big reason I feel the way I do.
    I don't think we are done with an at-large selection but we have no room for error. In my opinion to maintain hope of an at large selection we have to win all remaining weekend series at a minimum with a sweep of Monroe on the road. I don't think that is unrealistic. We also need to win both weekday games and make a deep tournament run. Definitely have concerns with both of those points.

    Doing the above might not be enough but from a numbers point of view we aren't done yet. We can get to 40 wins and improve our RPI for a CHANCE at consideration.

  13. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by IHateLaState View Post
    I think our history will play into a decision.
    I think CCU being defending NC will top any history we may have if we're in the same boat.

    We didn't TCOB when we should have. Now we have to win the tournament or its off to summer ball. I think we peaked a week back, expecting another run like that to close the season is a long shot.

  14. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90 View Post
    Our history isn't going to help us get in. Nor is that SP series getting tossed. If anything it will used against us beyond what it has done to our RPI number. It can be a prime example of how we didn't put together a strong schedule.
    Disagree on both counts.... but guess we will see.. The improtant thing now is to win... don't do that and none of this is pertinent anyway

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    Quote Originally Posted by jumboragncajun View Post
    Luc's sophomore year, we were 39-20 with a 56 RPI and didn't get in. We are at 59 right now.
    Didn't have the history back then and I really do believe that if it comes down to us or somebody else, the SP series will be tossed as they try to make a decision...

  16. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZoomZoom View Post
    I think CCU being defending NC will top any history we may have if we're in the same boat.
    Yep I think they would trump us...

  17. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManAboutTown View Post
    Sorry GG, I disagree. I hope like hell im wrong, but outside of a 9 game stretch in April, our sample size is pretty clear. I'll say again, expecting this team to win 85% of its remaining games is lofty. It would be lofty to EXPECT any team to do so.
    You said that "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation" ... meaning, there is no path to which an at-large bid is possible. I disagree with that ... and it seems that you do as well per your additional statement above (inferring that winning 85% of the remaining games would be a path to an at-large bid). BTW, D1Baseball also disagrees with your original assessment as the Cajuns are currently in consideration for an at-large bid and are bubble-out at the moment.

    If you agree that there is a path to an at-large bid, then we can bury my disagreement with your statement and move to peel the onion a bit.

    I will preface all of this by saying that if I were asked my opinion concerning the Cajuns ultimately earning an at-large bid, I will say that it is possible, but that there is probably better than a 50% chance it will not happen given their current position and the play of last weekend. That can certainly change ... and there are several variables at play that are independent of what the Cajuns do on the field. But I am not conflating my opinion of whether or not the Cajuns will earn an at-large bid with there being paths available to an at-large bid (which there are).

    Some scenarios ...

    1) If the Cajuns win 85% of their remaining games (meaning 13/15) and do not win the conference tournament, an at-large bid is a slam dunk. This would leave them with an RPI at about 34 (all other things being equal), at minimum a third place conference finish, and a solid record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50. Their NC RPI would also have an excellent shot of moving into the Top 50.

    2) I also modeled winning 12/15 ... it places the Cajuns around #41 in RPI. Even 11/15 leaves them in the Top 50 RPI (at present). Keep in mind that it does not take much to move from 50 from 59 ... as the pack is tight. #41 is not far away either.

    3) I refer back to the Cajuns' record vs. the RPI Top 25 and more importantly, the Top 50. 7-7 is solid and the Cajuns have a chance to up that against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State (at home) and potentially others in the Sun Belt Tournament.

    Some important things to note ...

    I talk about this every year ... when you are on the bubble, probably the most influential factor is the number of stolen bids that year. The number does vary. In a good year (2 stolen bids) ... the Cajuns could finish 9-6 and make the field with an RPI in the low to mid 50's. In a bad year (Ex. 6 or 7 stolen bids), the Cajuns could finish 12-3 and there is a risk they do not make the field as an at-large. We do not know what is going to happen here ... which is why I chuckle when I see definitive statements about a cut-off point with respect to the RPI when assessing whether an at-large will be awarded. The cut-off varies.

    Some data points around this ... over the last six years the range of stolen bids has been between two and seven ... with three being very common. The last three years saw 3, 3, and 2. We had a six stolen bid year in 2013.

    If we look at just last year (three stolen bid year), we had seven (7) at-large bids awarded to teams with an RPI ranking of 40+. This includes three (3) at-large bids between 50 and 55. These teams finished anywhere from 1st in conference to tied for 3rd (with two other teams). Four of these teams had NC RPIs of 64+ with a high of 93. Records vs. the RPI Top 50 varied between 8-5 and 3-5 (three had losing records). One team was 10-8 vs. teams ranked 150+.

    #55 Washington
    #52 Long Beach State
    #50 Minnesota
    #49 South Alabama
    #47 Nebraska
    #43 Arizona State
    #40 SLU

    This is just one year.

    There are many paths still available to an at-large bid. It starts with a series win this weekend. A sweep is not necessary ... but I think winning the series will be very important in getting this team back on track.

    Brian

  18. #238
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    Thanks Brian... Interesting read as always


  19. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin View Post
    You said that "this is a "win the tournament or stay home" situation" ... meaning, there is no path to which an at-large bid is possible. I disagree with that ... and it seems that you do as well per your additional statement above (inferring that winning 85% of the remaining games would be a path to an at-large bid). BTW, D1Baseball also disagrees with your original assessment as the Cajuns are currently in consideration for an at-large bid and are bubble-out at the moment.

    If you agree that there is a path to an at-large bid, then we can bury my disagreement with your statement and move to peel the onion a bit.

    I will preface all of this by saying that if I were asked my opinion concerning the Cajuns ultimately earning an at-large bid, I will say that it is possible, but that there is probably better than a 50% chance it will not happen given their current position and the play of last weekend. That can certainly change ... and there are several variables at play that are independent of what the Cajuns do on the field. But I am not conflating my opinion of whether or not the Cajuns will earn an at-large bid with there being paths available to an at-large bid (which there are).

    Some scenarios ...

    1) If the Cajuns win 85% of their remaining games (meaning 13/15) and do not win the conference tournament, an at-large bid is a slam dunk. This would leave them with an RPI at about 34 (all other things being equal), at minimum a third place conference finish, and a solid record vs. the RPI Top 25 and Top 50. Their NC RPI would also have an excellent shot of moving into the Top 50.

    2) I also modeled winning 12/15 ... it places the Cajuns around #41 in RPI. Even 11/15 leaves them in the Top 50 RPI (at present). Keep in mind that it does not take much to move from 50 from 59 ... as the pack is tight. #41 is not far away either.

    3) I refer back to the Cajuns' record vs. the RPI Top 25 and more importantly, the Top 50. 7-7 is solid and the Cajuns have a chance to up that against Louisiana Tech and McNeese State (at home) and potentially others in the Sun Belt Tournament.

    Some important things to note ...

    I talk about this every year ... when you are on the bubble, probably the most influential factor is the number of stolen bids that year. The number does vary. In a good year (2 stolen bids) ... the Cajuns could finish 9-6 and make the field with an RPI in the low to mid 50's. In a bad year (Ex. 6 or 7 stolen bids), the Cajuns could finish 12-3 and there is a risk they do not make the field as an at-large. We do not know what is going to happen here ... which is why I chuckle when I see definitive statements about a cut-off point with respect to the RPI when assessing whether an at-large will be awarded. The cut-off varies.

    Some data points around this ... over the last six years the range of stolen bids has been between two and seven ... with three being very common. The last three years saw 3, 3, and 2. We had a six stolen bid year in 2013.

    If we look at just last year (three stolen bid year), we had seven (7) at-large bids awarded to teams with an RPI ranking of 40+. This includes three (3) at-large bids between 50 and 55. These teams finished anywhere from 1st in conference to tied for 3rd (with two other teams). Four of these teams had NC RPIs of 64+ with a high of 93. Records vs. the RPI Top 50 varied between 8-5 and 3-5 (three had losing records). One team was 10-8 vs. teams ranked 150+.

    #55 Washington
    #52 Long Beach State
    #50 Minnesota
    #49 South Alabama
    #47 Nebraska
    #43 Arizona State
    #40 SLU

    This is just one year.

    There are many paths still available to an at-large bid. It starts with a series win this weekend. A sweep is not necessary ... but I think winning the series will be very important in getting this team back on track.

    Brian
    Don't challenge computer guys, especially Cajun computer guys.

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    Default Re: Baseball rpi

    Terrific analysis


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