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Thread: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

  1. #41
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    Default Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    TROY 0

    USA 4

    E6


  2. #42
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    Default Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    TROY 1

    USA 4

    GAME OVER


  3. #43
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    Default Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunKahouna
    _ TROY 1

    USA 4

    GAME OVER _
    This has got to work in our favor!

  4. #44
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    Default Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by CajunKahouna
    _ This has got to work in our favor! _
    Actually it could work against us. As of this a.m. prior to any games being played Troy had fallen out of the Top 50 pRPI. The Cajuns now stand at 1-5 vs teams ranked 1-25 in the RPI and 0-0 with teams ranked 26-50 in the RPI. Not exactly impressive numbers. Troy's lose pretty much assures they aren't going to get back in the top 50 and probably does in their chances at getting an at large bid.

  5. #45
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    UL Baseball Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by Cajun90
    Actually it could work against us. As of this a.m. prior to any games being played Troy had fallen out of the Top 50 pRPI. The Cajuns now stand at 1-5 vs teams ranked 1-25 in the RPI and 0-0 with teams ranked 26-50 in the RPI. Not exactly impressive numbers. Troy's lose pretty much assures they aren't going to get back in the top 50 and probably does in their chances at getting an at large bid.
    Yes, 1-5 against the Top 25 and Top 50 RPI does not look good. Although, the teams ranked 47 -> 53 in the RPI are extremely tight. It is possible, but not probable, that several of these teams have worse losses than Troy today and could fall far enough to where Troy passes them. But I do not expect this to happen.

    47 0.5621 North Carolina-Charlotte
    48 0.5619 Minnesota
    49 0.5616 Oklahoma State
    50 0.5613 South Florida
    51 0.5608 Southern California
    52 0.5608 UC Riverside
    53 0.5606 Troy

    All of the teams above play tonight, save Troy (losing today to USA) and UNC-Charlotte who won today. However, Riverside can only lose to a high RPI Cal-Irvine squad, Minnesota plays a Ohio State team that is rated just below USA, and Oklahoma State plays a high RPI Oklahoma team. Hence, I think the only teams that Troy has a remote chance of passing tonight are Southern California, South Florida, and Minnesota. And this does not take into account teams that can pass Troy from below. Such as an idle LSU squad.

    Brian

  6. #46
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    This is so COOL Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
    _

    47 0.5621 North Carolina-Charlotte
    48 0.5619 Minnesota
    49 0.5616 Oklahoma State
    50 0.5613 South Florida
    51 0.5608 Southern California
    52 0.5608 UC Riverside
    53 0.5606 Troy

    All of the teams above play tonight, save Troy (losing today to USA) and UNC-Charlotte who won today. However, Riverside can only lose to a high RPI Cal-Irvine squad, Minnesota plays a Ohio State team that is rated just below USA, and Oklahoma State plays a high RPI Oklahoma team. Hence, I think the only teams that Troy has a remote chance of passing tonight are Southern California, South Florida, and Minnesota. And this does not take into account teams that can pass Troy from below. Such as an idle LSU squad.

    Brian _
    Minnesota lost to Ohio State
    South Florida lost to UCONN TWICE!
    Southern Cal is beating Stanford 3-0 in the 5th...
    OSU beating OK 5-2 in the 7th...
    UC Riverside losing to UC Irvine 1-0 in the 6th

    Also probably good: Gonzaga beat San Diego (any chance SD won't get a host site?). Missouri lost to Baylor! Wake beat Clemson!

    How 'bout an update on host chances after tonight's action? I'm sure you were going to do that anyway...

  7. #47
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    UL Baseball Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by cajundiehard
    Minnesota lost to Ohio State
    South Florida lost to UCONN TWICE!
    Southern Cal is beating Stanford 3-0 in the 5th...
    OSU beating OK 5-2 in the 7th...
    UC Riverside losing to UC Irvine 1-0 in the 6th

    Also probably good: Gonzaga beat San Diego (any chance SD won't get a host site?). Missouri lost to Baylor! Wake beat Clemson!

    How 'bout an update on host chances after tonight's action? I'm sure you were going to do that anyway...
    Miami beating Florida State tonight hurt. The Cajuns do not want to see Miami in the finals of the ACC Tournament. If Wake Forest does not beat Miami tomorrow night, either Miami or Clemson (not Florida State) will be in the ACC Tournament finals. This means nail-biting time as either team would be a candidate for a host site. Without a finals appearance by either team, I think the NCAA passes and only awards Florida State, North Carolina, and Virginia host sites. Wake Forest beating Clemson certainly helped. But Clemson can still make the finals with a win tomorrow and a Miami win over Wake Forest.

    Arizona beating Arizona State also hurt. I think they are back in the running for a fourth western regional, even though Arizona State won 2/3 and ran away with the Pac 10 title. Arizona finishes second in the Pac 10 (#4 RPI conference) and will move up from #20 in the RPI. Not good.

    Missouri will fare no better than 1-2 in the Big XII Tournament. But even at 0-3, I think they are still a #1 host after solidly finishing second in conference and beating Texas 2/3 on the road.

    Texas A&M beating Texas last night hurt. But the Aggies finished 5th in the Big XII with a 13-13 record and are 1-1 in the tournament (14-14 overall in conference). The NCAA has never awarded a #1 seed to a 5th place or lower team that did not have a winning record in conference. However, a Big XII Tournament title would get them a #1 seed and I believe a host site. Losing in the finals? Tough call. The best bet for the Cajuns is for Kansas State to beat Texas A&M tomorrow morning. If A&M wins, Cajun fans need Nebraska to beat Texas so that Nebraska makes the trip to the finals instead of Texas A&M.

    Wichita State continues to fight its way through the loser's bracket in the MVC Tournament. However, they need to beat Creighton twice to win the tournament title. I think they can still be a #1 seed, but a #2 seed is more likely. Yet, they can still be a host with a #2 seed. The question is whether the NCAA will award a regional to both Missouri and Wichita State (geography). Missouri will be the northernmost regional. But the NCAA may want another semi-northern regional in Wichita (really more midwest, but hey this is college baseball). I do not consider Charlottesville to be semi-north although it is north of Wichita.

    I think San Diego is a lock for a #1 seed. But I think they need to win the conference playoff against Gonzaga to earn a national seed. They now need to win back-to-back games to do so. I think San Diego is hosting.

    I think Ole Miss is hosting and Mississippi State is not.

    It is possible that Long Beach State could lose a host spot if Cal State-Fullerton can hammer the Dirtbags this weekend. It looks like Long Beach State will not win the Big West title. Cal-Riverside is the favorite now, with Cal-Irvine on their heels (tied with LBSU). They play each other this weekend and it looks like Cal-Irvine is going to win tonight (Irvine also bid a regional). Cal-Riverside has the tiebreaker over LBSU as they swept them last weekend. However, Cal-State Fullerton is trailing LBSU right now 6-2 ... wait ... CSF just hit a grand slam. Game tied 6-6. Wes Roemer is pitching for the Titans.

    I think it would be a crime if the NCAA gave TCU a host regional. I think they are a #2 seed. Their RPI is 36 and they are only 13-10 vs. the RPI Top 100. But they have the gaudy record and have a better record vs. the Top 25 and Top 50 than the Cajuns. They also have Air Force dragging down their RPI (they played them six times (six wins) in conference). Without Air Force on the schedule, TCU has an RPI in the Top 20.

    So, I think the likely host sites and #1 seeds are ...

    Florida State (ACC)
    North Carolina (ACC)
    Virginia (ACC)
    Vanderbilt (SEC)
    Arkansas (SEC)
    South Carolina (SEC)
    Mississippi (SEC)
    Texas (Big XII)
    Missouri (Big XII)
    Rice (CUSA)
    Coastal Carolina (Big South)
    Arizona State (Pac 10)
    San Diego (WCC)
    Long Beach State (Big West)

    This leaves two host spots for the following schools ...

    Louisiana
    Texas A&M
    Wichita State
    Arizona
    Clemson
    Miami
    TCU

    I think I covered all the bases. But I am tired and working off the top of my head.

    Brian

  8. #48
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    UL Baseball Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin

    It is possible that Long Beach State could lose a host spot if Cal State-Fullerton can hammer the Dirtbags this weekend. It looks like Long Beach State will not win the Big West title. Cal-Riverside is the favorite now, with Cal-Irvine on their heels (tied with LBSU). They play each other this weekend and it looks like Cal-Irvine is going to win tonight (Irvine also bid a regional). Cal-Riverside has the tiebreaker over LBSU as they swept them last weekend. However, Cal-State Fullerton is trailing LBSU right now 6-2 ... wait ... CSF just hit a grand slam. Game tied 6-6. Wes Roemer is pitching for the Titans.
    Cal-State Fullerton rallies to defeat the Dirtbags 7-6. Roemer pitches a complete game for the Titans.

    Cal-Irvine shuts out Cal-Riverside 5-0. Long Beach State is in third place behind Cal-Riverside and Cal-Irvine.

    Brian

  9. #49
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    UL Baseball Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
    _ Cal-State Fullerton rallies to defeat the Dirtbags 7-6. Roemer pitches a complete game for the Titans.

    Cal-Irvine shuts out Cal-Riverside 5-0. Long Beach State is in third place behind Cal-Riverside and Cal-Irvine.

    Brian _
    I'm guessing that the Big West will get a host slot with whoever finishes on top here... so whatever happens it seems like it is probably a wash.

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
    This leaves two host spots for the following schools ...

    Louisiana
    Texas A&M
    Wichita State
    Arizona
    Clemson
    Miami
    TCU
    Well, it is not looking great based on this. Looks like from what you have said that the NCAA wants 4 out west... so Arizona probably did enough to earn the 15th slot.

    The 16th could easily go to Wichita with the Cajuns as a traveling #1 seed. That would be the worst case scenario, IMHO, from a personal standpoint as I have managed to get next Fri-Sunday off from work and able to travel where-ever the Cajuns go... but "within reason" according to the wife as the wife and kids would come along... Wichita is not "within reason."

    Tex A&M, Clem, Miami will eliminate themselves - hopefully. I thought Miami had a bad park...??? TCU-as you said above and there are already enough Texas regionals... ;-) So, I worry most about Wichita and Arizona.

    From your list of the 14 likely host sites, who (besides LBSU) would be most likely to play themselves out of a host slot or not actually get a host slot? Anybody? Or, are they otherwise pretty much locks?

    Thanks for your insight!

  10. #50
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    UL Baseball Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
    _ Yes, 1-5 against the Top 25 and Top 50 RPI does not look good. Although, the teams ranked 47 -> 53 in the RPI are extremely tight. It is possible, but not probable, that several of these teams have worse losses than Troy today and could fall far enough to where Troy passes them. But I do not expect this to happen.

    47 0.5621 North Carolina-Charlotte
    48 0.5619 Minnesota
    49 0.5616 Oklahoma State
    50 0.5613 South Florida
    51 0.5608 Southern California
    52 0.5608 UC Riverside
    53 0.5606 Troy

    All of the teams above play tonight, save Troy (losing today to USA) and UNC-Charlotte who won today. However, Riverside can only lose to a high RPI Cal-Irvine squad, Minnesota plays a Ohio State team that is rated just below USA, and Oklahoma State plays a high RPI Oklahoma team. Hence, I think the only teams that Troy has a remote chance of passing tonight are Southern California, South Florida, and Minnesota. And this does not take into account teams that can pass Troy from below. Such as an idle LSU squad.

    Brian _
    Southern Cal was victim of comeback and subsequent 11 inning loss to Stanford by score of 10-7!

  11. #51
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    UL 1984, 1999 . . . . Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by cajundiehard
    _ Minnesota lost to Ohio State
    South Florida lost to UCONN TWICE!
    Southern Cal is beating Stanford 3-0 in the 5th...
    OSU beating OK 5-2 in the 7th...
    UC Riverside losing to UC Irvine 1-0 in the 6th

    Also probably good: Gonzaga beat San Diego (any chance SD won't get a host site?). Missouri lost to Baylor! Wake beat Clemson!

    How 'bout an update on host chances after tonight's action? I'm sure you were going to do that anyway... _
    Oklahoma also came back to beat OK State!

    Sooo... RPI teams 48 Minnesota, 49 OK State, 50 South Florida (twice), 51 Southern Cal, 52 UC Riverside, and 53 Troy ALL lost today...

    It is ashame Troy couldn't beat South Alabama this afternoon as they would have certainly moved up in these ratings even after a loss to the Cajuns and a 1-1 day. It will be interesting to see what the ratings look like tomorrow AM... Hopefully these other teams around Troy continue to falter... I get the feeling that the Top 50 record will be important when the selection committee looks at it...

    Do you think having ASU's Peterson or Miss. State's Templeton will help or hurt our cause to host? What do you think about ULM's AD being on the baseball selection committee starting next year? How long is that term.

    Thanks!

  12. #52
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    UL Baseball Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by cajundiehard
    Oklahoma also came back to beat OK State!

    Sooo... RPI teams 48 Minnesota, 49 OK State, 50 South Florida (twice), 51 Southern Cal, 52 UC Riverside, and 53 Troy ALL lost today...

    It is ashame Troy couldn't beat South Alabama this afternoon as they would have certainly moved up in these ratings even after a loss to the Cajuns and a 1-1 day. It will be interesting to see what the ratings look like tomorrow AM... Hopefully these other teams around Troy continue to falter... I get the feeling that the Top 50 record will be important when the selection committee looks at it...
    Oklahoma State and UC Riverside will likely stay in front of Troy in the SEBaseball.com RPI. Southern Cal and South Florida will likely fall behind Troy. Minnesota will be close.

    However, LSU will likely leap Troy.

    I think the Top 25 and Top 50 RPI records will be important (as I have stated). But I think that if the Cajuns win the conference tournament (going undefeated), they will overlook this big negative and award the Cajuns a #1 seed. A host regional will depend on whether the NCAA views the facility (most press and TV accommodations) as adequate. I suspect they will.

    A win tomorrow would give the Cajuns a number of positives ...

    SBC regular season championship
    SBC Tournament championship
    Strong RPI of at least 13
    Strong non-conference RPI
    Strong road record with 20 road wins
    Strong road RPI
    13-2 in Last Fifteen Games
    Strong Top 100 RPI record
    Solid Conference RPI of 7

    In fact, I still think there is a chance the Cajuns are a #1 seed if they lose tomorrow. But we do not need to talk about that.

    Quote Originally Posted by cajundiehard
    Do you think having ASU's Peterson or Miss. State's Templeton will help or hurt our cause to host? What do you think about ULM's AD being on the baseball selection committee starting next year? How long is that term.

    Thanks!
    Do you mean ASU's Pat Murphy? I think he will help unless it comes down to Arizona vs. UL for a #1 seed and/or a host regional.

    I think Templeton will help because he cannot justify a MSU regional and there are no other teams on the regional host bubble in the SEC.

    I definitely think having a Sun Belt school rep will help next season.

    Also, remember that FAU coach Kevin Cooney is on the South regional advisory committee this season. He has had a chance to provide input to the selection committee.

    Brian

  13. #53
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    Default Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    [/QUOTE]

    A win tomorrow would give the Cajuns a number of positives ...

    SBC regular season championship
    SBC Tournament championship
    Strong RPI of at least 13
    Strong non-conference RPI
    Strong road record with 20 road wins
    Strong road RPI
    13-2 in Last Fifteen Games
    Strong Top 100 RPI record
    Solid Conference RPI of 7

    In fact, I still think there is a chance the Cajuns are a #1 seed if they lose tomorrow. But we do not need to talk about that.

    Brian _
    [/QUOTE]

    Cajuns pRPI is at 12 this morning and we sit .0023 behind A&M and .0028 behind Virginia. Virginia plays North Carolina today at 1:00. Geaux Tarheels. A&M takes on Kansas State at 11:00. Mississippi is .0011 behind the Cajuns and they play Vanderbilt this afternoon.


  14. #54
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    UL Baseball Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin



    Do you mean ASU's Pat Murphy? I think he will help unless it comes down to Arizona vs. UL for a #1 seed and/or a host regional.

    I think Templeton will help because he cannot justify a MSU regional and there are no other teams on the regional host bubble in the SEC.

    I definitely think having a Sun Belt school rep will help next season.

    Also, remember that FAU coach Kevin Cooney is on the South regional advisory committee this season. He has had a chance to provide input to the selection committee.

    Brian _
    Yea, Murphy.... sorry.

    Cooney on the advisorycommittee can only help as he LOVED coming down to the Tigue and went as far as writing that letter...

  15. #55
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    Default Re: Sun Belt Tourney Scores

    Quote Originally Posted by GoneGolfin
    _

    In fact, I still think there is a chance the Cajuns are a #1 seed if they lose tomorrow. But we do not need to talk about that.

    So you must be really thinking that the Cajuns have an excellent shot of nailing down at least a #1 seed with a win today... Just hope we aren't that last #1 seed sent traveling to Wichita.

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