Cajun Softball OWP

[GoneGolfin]

Through yesterday's games, the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is still lingering below .500 with a .4890. However, in the aggregate, Cajun opponents in that OWP have scheduled strong non-conference schedules. Once they begin moving into the weaker part of their schedules, this should begin to correct itself and I expect the Cajuns' OWP to rise. The Cajuns' OOWP will also reflect this early season schedule strength.

Some examples ...

Hofstra is currently 2-10 (.1667) in non-UL games. Hofstra is a much better team than this and have been beaten up by the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Michigan, Depaul, UCLA, Virginia, East Carolina, etc. They no longer have any ranked teams remaining on their schedule and will be immersed in CAA conference play soon.

Other schools like Winthrop (11-11, .5000), Boston (10-6, .6250), and Mississippi Valley State (11-11, .5000) are doing OK, but should see their winning percentage increase dramatically as they move into the second half of their schedule.

Meanwhile, the Sun Belt schedule will be just fine for the Cajuns (in terms of OWP). At present, Cajun opponents in Sun Belt play would contribute an aggregate .5445 to the OWP.

Looking at the remainder of the Judy Garmin Classic, we have ...

Penn State 7-13 (.3500)
Fresno State 19-10 (.6552)
Iowa 9-12 (.4289)
Arizona 16-4 (.8000)

... which results in an aggregate .5585 OWP and what will be a solid contribution to the OOWP.

Brian

[cajun4life]

If the Cajuns sweep the Judi Garman, what is the chances that the Cajuns reach the number 1 ranking?

[wcd35]

Are you talking RPI or poll ranking? Because if we're talking RPI, all of what Brian said leads me to say they certainly wont be RPI #1. Polls are at the mercy of the media so there's no statistics that can bring you to any conclusions and as we know, they carry no weight at all. I'd guess if that happens we'd be top 5 but not #1 unless others fall. Even with the quality wins, I doubt the voters would drop the other 2 undefeateds (Bama and Cal)

EDIT: Cal lost to Hawaii and Hawaii lost to Texas so that's another couple of undefeateds removed from the list though Hawaii wasnt ahead of us

[cajun4life]

Are you talking RPI or poll ranking? Because if we're talking RPI, all of what Brian said leads me to say they certainly wont be RPI #1. Polls are at the mercy of the media so there's no statistics that can bring you to any conclusions and as we know, they carry no weight at all. I'd guess if that happens we'd be top 5 but not #1 unless others fall.

I was referring to the NFCA/other polls rankings. We will be what 28-0 with a sweep of the Tourney?

[ulforlife]

If the Cajuns sweep the Judi Garman, what is the chances that the Cajuns reach the number 1 ranking?

Not happening, I think if we go 5-0 we could hit 6th

don't worry about all that though, just win

[wcd35]

I was referring to the NFCA/other polls rankings. We will be what 28-0 with a sweep of the Tourney?

That would be correct. Our pitching will need to be consistent all weekend to do that though. Not something we've really had all year, though we've certainly made up for it when necessary

[ulforlife]

Through yesterday's games, the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is still lingering below .500 with a .4890. However, in the aggregate, Cajun opponents in that OWP have scheduled strong non-conference schedules. Once they begin moving into the weaker part of their schedules, this should begin to correct itself and I expect the Cajuns' OWP to rise. The Cajuns' OOWP will also reflect this early season schedule strength.

Some examples ...

Hofstra is currently 2-10 (.1667) in non-UL games. Hofstra is a much better team than this and have been beaten up by the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Michigan, Depaul, UCLA, Virginia, East Carolina, etc. They no longer have any ranked teams remaining on their schedule and will be immersed in CAA conference play soon.

Other schools like Winthrop (11-11, .5000), Boston (10-6, .6250), and Mississippi Valley State (11-11, .5000) are doing OK, but should see their winning percentage increase dramatically as they move into the second half of their schedule.

Meanwhile, the Sun Belt schedule will be just fine for the Cajuns (in terms of OWP). At present, Cajun opponents in Sun Belt play would contribute an aggregate .5445 to the OWP.

Looking at the remainder of the Judy Garmin Classic, we have ...

Penn State 7-13 (.3500)
Fresno State 19-10 (.6552)
Iowa 9-12 (.4289)
Arizona 16-4 (.8000)

... which results in an aggregate .5585 OWP and what will be a solid contribution to the OOWP.

Brian

Hofstra had it really tough so far, they are much much better than their record. Thanks for the insight

[GoneGolfin]

Are you talking RPI or poll ranking? Because if we're talking RPI, all of what Brian said leads me to say they certainly wont be RPI #1. Polls are at the mercy of the media so there's no statistics that can bring you to any conclusions and as we know, they carry no weight at all. I'd guess if that happens we'd be top 5 but not #1 unless others fall. Even with the quality wins, I doubt the voters would drop the other 2 undefeateds (Bama and Cal)

EDIT: Cal lost to Hawaii so that's another undefeated out

Yes, Cal (23-1) lost in a 10-inning affair at Hawaii last night (Spring Fling Tournament). Hawaii (23-1) was undefeated entering the tournament, but lost to Texas.

Alabama (22-0) and Louisville (21-0) are still undefeated.

With the Cajuns' gaudy record and what I believe is a solid OOWP, I am confident that the Cajuns currently possess a Top 10 RPI ranking. But the OWP will improve and much more than offset any drop in OOWP. Just keep winning and the RPI will take care of itself.

Brian

[wcd35]

Just for kicks, teams ahead of us

Bama - 1-0 over Oregon, play Ole Miss on wkd
Cal - 2-1 with loss to Hawaii but win over Texas, play Winthrop and Marist
Washington - 2-0 at Garman, Notre Dame, Depaul, OU rest of wkd
Florida - 0-0, Play South Carolina wkd
Az State - 1-1 at Judi Garman, play Fresno, Michigan, Notre Dame
Texas - 2-1 this week losing to Cal. One more game vs Winthrop
OU - 2-0 at Judi Garman over Depaul and Michigan, play Virginia, Penn St, Washington
Georgia - 0-1 Lost to Ga Tech midweek, play Auburn wkd
Stanford - Not playing this week

Tennessee - 2-0 midweek, play Arkansas (Behind in 1 poll, ahead in another)

[ulforlife]

Just for kicks, teams ahead of us

Bama - 1-0 over Oregon, play Ole Miss on wkd
Cal - 2-1 with loss to Hawaii but win over Texas, play Winthrop and Marist
Washington - 2-0 at Garman, Notre Dame, Depaul, OU rest of wkd
Florida - 0-0, Play South Carolina wkd
Az State - 1-1 at Judi Garman, play Fresno, Michigan, Notre Dame
Texas - 2-1 this week losing to Cal. One more game vs Winthrop
OU - 2-0 at Judi Garman over Depaul and Michigan, play Virginia, Penn St, Washington
Georgia - 0-1 Lost to Ga Tech midweek, play Auburn wkd
Stanford - Not playing this week

Tennessee - 2-0 midweek, play Arkansas (Behind in 1 poll, ahead in another)

This will be a very interesting weekend

[GoneGolfin]

Through yesterday's games, the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is still lingering below .500 with a .4890. However, in the aggregate, Cajun opponents in that OWP have scheduled strong non-conference schedules. Once they begin moving into the weaker part of their schedules, this should begin to correct itself and I expect the Cajuns' OWP to rise. The Cajuns' OOWP will also reflect this early season schedule strength.

Some examples ...

Hofstra is currently 2-10 (.1667) in non-UL games. Hofstra is a much better team than this and have been beaten up by the likes of Louisville, Tennessee, Michigan, Depaul, UCLA, Virginia, East Carolina, etc. They no longer have any ranked teams remaining on their schedule and will be immersed in CAA conference play soon.

Other schools like Winthrop (11-11, .5000), Boston (10-6, .6250), and Mississippi Valley State (11-11, .5000) are doing OK, but should see their winning percentage increase dramatically as they move into the second half of their schedule.

Meanwhile, the Sun Belt schedule will be just fine for the Cajuns (in terms of OWP). At present, Cajun opponents in Sun Belt play would contribute an aggregate .5445 to the OWP.

Looking at the remainder of the Judy Garmin Classic, we have ...

Penn State 7-13 (.3500)
Fresno State 19-10 (.6552)
Iowa 9-12 (.4289)
Arizona 16-4 (.8000)

... which results in an aggregate .5585 OWP and what will be a solid contribution to the OOWP.

Brian

Through yesterday's games (3/21/12), the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is now over .500 at .5141, compared to .4890 after the Arizona State game on 3/15. Some of the movers this week that have helped the Cajuns' OWP are Rutgers (.5000 vs. .4118), Hofstra (.3125 vs. .1667), Boston (.6818 vs. .6250), Houston (.5769 vs. .5217), and North Texas (.5217 vs. 4211). Some of the teams falling notably include Mississippi State (.6207 vs. .6800) and Winthrop (losses to Cal, Texas, Texas A&M) (.4231 vs. .5000).

Nicholls State (.1905) and Stephen F. Austin (.3043) continue to be a drag on the Cajuns' OWP, but at least the Cajuns only have two games against these opponents in total.

Georgia Tech will contribute some aid to the Cajun OWP as they come in with a .5758 winning percentage. And while it only constitutes 25% of the Cajuns' RPI (OOWP), Tech's OWP is strong and will help some. Troy has a nice 7-1 win over Auburn last night and while this win helps Troy much more than it does UL (OWP for Troy vs. OOWP for UL), three games this weekend against a Troy opponent with a 19-7 record (.7308) will be quite beneficial to the Cajuns' OWP.

If you factor in the games vs. Georgia Tech and Troy through Sunday (assuming all games can be played) and factor out any game results by Georgia Tech this weekend and all other Cajun opponents thus far not named Troy, the Cajuns' OWP will rise from .5141 to .5390.

The Cajuns' WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6760.

It should be noted that if/when the Cajuns incur their first loss, it will impact the RPI significantly. This is because the Cajuns cannot improve their WP (1.0000 is perfect). Additional wins do not help the Cajuns' WP in the scenario of a perfect record. But a first loss will have a significant impact. However, the impact of that first loss is mitigated as the wins pile up and the Cajuns add to their win total.

Brian

[awadelewis]

Geez... as complicated as they're making these rankings, you almost need compute time on the LONI supercomputer cluster here in Oliver Hall to figure out where we stand in the ranking.

[ulforlife]

so what you're saying is "just win"

[CajunRed]

Through yesterday's games (3/21/12), the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is now over .500 at .5141, compared to .4890 after the Arizona State game on 3/15. Some of the movers this week that have helped the Cajuns' OWP are Rutgers (.5000 vs. .4118), Hofstra (.3125 vs. .1667), Boston (.6818 vs. .6250), Houston (.5769 vs. .5217), and North Texas (.5217 vs. 4211). Some of the teams falling notably include Mississippi State (.6207 vs. .6800) and Winthrop (losses to Cal, Texas, Texas A&M) (.4231 vs. .5000).

Nicholls State (.1905) and Stephen F. Austin (.3043) continue to be a drag on the Cajuns' OWP, but at least the Cajuns only have two games against these opponents in total.

Georgia Tech will contribute some aid to the Cajun OWP as they come in with a .5758 winning percentage. And while it only constitutes 25% of the Cajuns' RPI (OOWP), Tech's OWP is strong and will help some. Troy has a nice 7-1 win over Auburn last night and while this win helps Troy much more than it does UL (OWP for Troy vs. OOWP for UL), three games this weekend against a Troy opponent with a 19-7 record (.7308) will be quite beneficial to the Cajuns' OWP.

If you factor in the games vs. Georgia Tech and Troy through Sunday (assuming all games can be played) and factor out any game results by Georgia Tech this weekend and all other Cajun opponents thus far not named Troy, the Cajuns' OWP will rise from .5141 to .5390.

The Cajuns' WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6760.

It should be noted that if/when the Cajuns incur their first loss, it will impact the RPI significantly. This is because the Cajuns cannot improve their WP (1.0000 is perfect). Additional wins do not help the Cajuns' WP in the scenario of a perfect record. But a first loss will have a significant impact. However, the impact of that first loss is mitigated as the wins pile up and the Cajuns add to their win total.

Brian

I was just about to post this info. Thanks for getting this out there.

[Cajun90]

Red your heads hurting again isn't it?

[CajunAmos]

Red your heads hurting again isn't it?

That would be OWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW...................P

[GoneGolfin]

I was just about to post this info. Thanks for getting this out there.

I am always happy to serve as your proxy.

Brian

[wcd35]

Brian, any idea what the RPI is for top programs (top 10 or so). I tried to find last years numbers to get an idea but all the NCAA releases is a ranking

[GoneGolfin]

Brian, any idea what the RPI is for top programs (top 10 or so). I tried to find last years numbers to get an idea but all the NCAA releases is a ranking

The actual RPI numbers are not published. Warren Nolan published the Base RPI number and the SOS number ((2*OWP) + OOWP)/3. But that service ceased to operate after 2010.

If you look at the Base RPI numbers from the 2010 season at a time a little later than now (after games of 4/11/10), the #10 Base RPI was .6344. UL was #34 at .5798. The Cajuns were only 24-14 at the time (.6316) but had a decent SOS (.5798). A 30-8 record would have given them a Base RPI ranking in the Top 15. A 33-5 record would have given them an RPI rank of #8.

The part of the equation that we do not know is the Cajuns' OOWP. This would be a tremendous amount of work to research and calculate given that I know of no available NCAA softball game results feeds (data file with each game result ... could be in CSV or tab delimited format). And even if you went to the website of each Cajun opponents' opponent and tabulated the results, it would only be good for that instance in time ... and would only give you the Cajun Base RPI number, not the rank ... as you would need to calculate the RPI number for every team to establish a rank. What is really needed is a daily game results data file ... it would then be easy to write code that could publish the RPI for all teams on a daily basis.

We do know the Cajuns' WP and OWP. Combined this is .6760. The remaining 25% is the OOWP. If we were conservative and used a .5000 for OOWP (which I think is reasonably conservative), this would provide a Base RPI of .6320. This would be a SOS of .5094 (probably outside of the Top 100), which is not strong. But as I have stated, I feel confident this number will improve. Using the 4/12/10 Base RPI publication as a guidepost, this would put the Cajuns at about #12. An OOWP of .5400 would provide an SOS of .5227 and an RPI of .6420 ... good for a Base RPI rank of #6 on 4/12/10.

Keep in mind ... this is Base RPI ... not Adjusted RPI (or simply RPI). The bonuses and penalties portion of the formula is not represented. While the Cajuns do not have any bonuses or penalties (Adjusted RPI = Base RPI), teams around them in the rankings may ... and thus the rankings are affected. The publication that the NCAA will release next week is the Adjusted RPI.

As I have stated in prior threads, I also want to emphasize that ... while the Cajuns' WP can go nowhere but down ... I feel that the Cajuns' OWP will continue to rise.

Brian

[GoneGolfin]

Through yesterday's games (3/21/12), the Cajun Softball OWP (50% of RPI formula) is now over .500 at .5141, compared to .4890 after the Arizona State game on 3/15.

Georgia Tech will contribute some aid to the Cajun OWP as they come in with a .5758 winning percentage. And while it only constitutes 25% of the Cajuns' RPI (OOWP), Tech's OWP is strong and will help some. Troy has a nice 7-1 win over Auburn last night and while this win helps Troy much more than it does UL (OWP for Troy vs. OOWP for UL), three games this weekend against a Troy opponent with a 19-7 record (.7308) will be quite beneficial to the Cajuns' OWP.

If you factor in the games vs. Georgia Tech and Troy through Sunday (assuming all games can be played) and factor out any game results by Georgia Tech this weekend and all other Cajun opponents thus far not named Troy, the Cajuns' OWP will rise from .5141 to .5390.

The Cajuns' WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6760.

Accounting for the two games vs. Georgia Tech tonight (but not counting the results of other Cajun opponents tonight) ...

OWP is now .5185 (from .5141)
WP+OWP (75% of RPI formula) is now .6790 (from .6760)

I can confidently say that the Cajuns' OOWP went up tonight. Georgia Tech has played an impressive schedule.

Brian